Analysts’ Ideas of the Week

COVID Tech Hammered but Outlook Remains Positive

Although most sectors generated positive returns today from Pfizer’s announcement, a few sectors/assets were negatively impacted, namely the US$, gold/silver, and stay-at-home stocks such as Zoom (NASDAQ;ZM), Amazon (NASDAQ:...

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Yamana Gold to Acquire an FRC Top Pick

With the U.S. presidential election concluding this week, we highlight certain sectors that will benefit from a Trump victory and sectors that will benefit from a Biden victory.

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Businesses Better Equipped for Second Wave

Although we are concerned about the surge in new cases, we believe that most countries are better equipped to handle the situation, as opposed to the first wave. Although a number of countries have imposed new restrictions, we do not expect total lockdowns. We continue to expect a U-shaped global economic recovery, and maintain our commodity price forecasts, as shown below.

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Will BHP or NCM have a go at SOLG & CGP?

Despite stronger gold prices, the valuation of both gold and base metals producers declined last week. The market continues to have a positive outlook on gold prices as the current global average EV / R and EV / EBITDA are higher than their four-year averages. Multiples of the Diversified Metals and Mining sector remain in line with their past four-year averages, implying that the market does not expect any further upside in base metal prices. This is also in line with our expectations.

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The IMF’s Revised Outlook Supports Base Metals

Our commodity price forecasts (unchanged) are shown below. Our copper price forecast for H2-2020 is US$2.90/lb vs the spot of US$3.07/lb. We remain positive on gold as our Q4-2020 forecast is US$1,925 per oz vs the spot of US$1,893.

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Gold Moving Up to Our Q4 Target of US$1,925

Most of the global equity indices we monitor reported gains for a second consecutive week. The S&P 500 was up 1.3% WoW vs 3.1% in the prior week. The S&P 500 and SSE Composite (China) are currently trading higher than pre-COVID19 levels.

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