
Disclosure: Rocket Doctor AI Inc. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Price and Volume (1-year)


* Rocket Doctor AI has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in C$ unless otherwise specified.
Company Overview

B2C: Physician-Funded Model (Primary Revenue Driver)
B2B: Institutions license AI tools for training and care
The Rocket Doctor Process

Source: FRC
Offers a streamlined virtual care experience from patient intake to payment
Generates revenue from doctors through monthly subscriptions and per-appointment platform fees
Target Markets

Operating in Canada since 2020; currently focused on U.S. expansion
RD’s current target pool includes ~49M people across its target regions in the U.S. and Canada
Primarily targets patients using government-funded health insurance (provincial in Canada and Medicaid / Medicare in the U.S.)

Source: FRC / Company
Partnerships with ~23 insurers in the U.S.
Financials
H1-2025 and H1-2026 results are not comparable, as material revenue commenced only after the Rocket Doctor acquisition in April 2025.

1.Excluding stock-based compensation (SBC) / 2.Excluding unusual items + SBC
Q2 revenue rose 43% YoY to $0.73M, but 16% below our estimate as the ramp-up was slower than expected
Growth was driven by higher patient volumes
Canadian visits up 23% YoY to 46k

Source: FRC / Company
U.S. visits were 3.9k, up 197% QoQ vs negligible activity in Q2-2025
Gross margins declined primarily due to the growing contribution of U.S. operations, not a structural change in the business model. U.S. gross margins are ~15–20%, as RD records full patient revenue and physician fees as direct costs. In Canada, revenue is reported net of physician payments, resulting in ~85–90% gross margins.
The difference reflects the payment flow: U.S. insurers pay RD, which then pays physicians; in Canada, provincial plans reimburse physicians directly, who then pay RD a service fee.

Operating expenses (G&A + R&D) were flat QoQ, but 18% above our estimate
Selling expenses increased 228% QoQ, 125% above our estimate, primarily driven by ramping digital ads and marketing partnerships

As a result, adjusted EBITDA and EPS weakened QoQ
Ended Q1 with $0.95M cash, with $1.20M in debt

Subsequent to Q1, the company raised $3.26M through convertible debentures

Source: FRC / Company
We estimate the company will require ~$6.5M in additional funding this year. In-the-money options could generate up to $2.3M, implying a minimum equity raise of ~$4M
FRC Valuation and Rating

Given higher-than-expected Q2 expenses, we are lowering our 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts; we are lowering our revenue estimates as well

Source: FRC
As a result, our DCF valuation declined from $1.82 to $1.40/share
Comparables Valuation

*We use the present value of our 20 30 EBITDA estimate for RD in this calculation.
Source: FRC / S&P Capital IQ
RD is trading at 1.0x forward revenue vs the sector average of 2.3x, a 56% discount
RD is trading at 8.7x forward EBITDA vs the sector average of 18.9x, a 54% discount
Our comparables valuation declined from $1.41/share to $1.19/share, primarily due to our lower revenue and EBITDA forecasts

Source: FRC
We reiterate our BUY rating, and adjust our fair value estimate from $1.55 to $1.26/share (the average of our DCF and comparables valuations). RD is gaining meaningful traction in the U.S., with rapidly growing patient volumes, coverage, and provider capacity supporting its virtual care platform. However, the slower-than-expected revenue ramp, rising marketing costs, funding requirements, and potential dilution remain key risks despite the stock’s significant valuation discount to peers.
Risks
We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks (not exhaustive):
We are maintaining a risk rating of 4 (Speculative)
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