Disclosure: Chilean Cobalt Corp. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Price and Volume (1-year)
* Chilean Cobalt Corp. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in US$ unless otherwise specified.
COBA offers exposure to two key critical minerals: cobalt & copper
Exposure to Copper and Cobalt
Copper price ↑46% YoY to $6.67/lb, driven by tightening supply, AI/grid demand, and an expected supply deficit
Source: FRC
Cobalt prices ↑51% YoY to $23/lb, supported by tighter supply and rising battery demand
Securing Critical Mineral Supply Chains
Critical minerals are essential for EVs, batteries, semiconductors, AI, and defense technologies. With global supply chains heavily concentrated in China, securing reliable access to these materials has become a strategic priority for Western economies, particularly the U.S. In response, the U.S. government is supporting a growing pipeline of mining, processing, and refining projects in safe jurisdictions through loans, grants, and strategic partnerships aimed at strengthening domestic and allied supply chains.
Source: FRC
According to the Critical Minerals Institute, the U.S. government allocated ~$26.2B to 33 publicly listed critical mineral companies between 2023 and 2026
U.S. EXIM Bank’s recent increase in potential financing from $317M to $375M reinforces strategic support for COBA
COBA Portfolio and Strategy
Three critical mineral projects in Chile, the world's largest copper producer, and second-largest lithium producer
Building an Americas-Focused Critical Minerals Supply Chain
COBA is pursuing an Americas-focused supply chain, from mining in Chile, to refining in the U.S., targeting EV, defense, and industrial markets
Glencore to purchase 100% of concentrate production, reducing commercialization risk
Source: FRC / Company
Strategic partnership with U.S. Strategic Metals (USSM), a U.S. critical-minerals processor, could enable concentrate exports to its Missouri facility, reducing reliance on third-party refiners
Key Partnerships & Financings
Recently, Glencore increased its ownership in COBA to 5.6% (from 3.5%), while Madesal (a (Chilean mining investment company) increased its stake to 7.4% (from 7.1%), signaling strong strategic support
Source: FRC
Secured partnerships across key stages of development, from project financing and concentrate sales to downstream processing, which we believe validates COBA’s business plan
Project Portfolio Overview
Source: FRC
Projects are in Chile’s San Juan District, a past-producing cobalt-copper camp
Located 10 km from the coast, and 30 km from the Port of Huasco, the district benefits from established roads, power, processing facilities, and a skilled workforce
Priority Exploration Targets
Source: Company
Both are pre-resource assets requiring significant drilling to establish scale and economics
La Cobaltera hosts multiple drill-ready cobalt-copper targets defined by historical exploration
Less-explored El Cofre shows district-scale potential
Development Plans
Source: FRC
COBA is pursuing a phased development plan focused on near-surface oxide mineralization, offering a potentially low-cost path to production
Plans to complete a maiden resource, and an independent economic study, (PEA) as key next steps
Source: FRC/SRK
An independent study by SRK, an engineering consultancy, outlined the potential for a 10–15-year operation at La Cobaltera
Management targets production within four to five years, which we view as a conservative timeline
Next steps include district consolidation, updating historical estimates, and drilling La Cobaltera, where only ~2 km of a 15–20 km strike zone has been explored. El Cofre fieldwork is also underway to define new copper-gold-cobalt targets.
NeoRe offers early-stage REE (rare earth elements) exposure
Source: FRC
COBA has an option to acquire 100% for 6M shares
Western nations seek domestic REE sources to reduce reliance on China
NeoRe has produced seven batches for evaluation by potential U.S. processing and offtake partners
Financials
Maintains a relatively healthy balance sheet, with no debt
Source: FRC / Company
FRC Valuation & Rating
Source: FRC
Although La Cobaltera does not have a resource estimate, we continue to use SRK’s study as a benchmark
Since our previous report, we raised our long-term copper price forecast from $3.75/lb to $4.25/lb
Given the EXIM Bank financing support, Glencore investment, and offtake agreement, we lowered our weighted average cost of capital from 12% to 9%
Source: FRC
As a result of the above changes, our valuation increased from $1.28 to $4.52/share
We reiterate our BUY rating, and raise our fair value estimate from $1.28 to $4.52/share. COBA has significantly strengthened its strategic positioning, with Glencore increasing its stake, and securing an offtake agreement, while U.S. EXIM support has also increased. While its projects remain early-stage , and carry higher development risk, COBA’s exposure to copper, cobalt, and rare earths, coupled with growing strategic support and multiple catalysts, underpins our positive outlook.
Risks
We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks (not exhaustive):
We are maintaining our risk rating of 5 (Highly Speculative)
