Monument Mining Limited
Executing on All Fronts, While Remaining Deeply Undervalued
ByFRC Analysts
Disclosure: Monument Mining Limited has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
- Exploration Success Points to Mine-Life Extension: Recent drilling continues to extend mineralization laterally and at depth, with several high-grade intercepts reported. With results pending from 19 holes, we expect the planned late-2026 resource update to support resource growth and extend the current ~12-year mine life.
- Gold Fundamentals Remain Supportive: Prices have pulled back recently, largely due to rising inflation, strong U.S. employment data, a stronger US$, and higher bond yields. However, we believe the new Fed Chair may be inclined to keep rates unchanged, balancing inflationary pressures with the administration's preference for lower rates. Combined with elevated inflation, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and continued safe-haven demand, a stable rate environment should support gold prices through 2026.
- Despite Outperformance, Shares Remain Deeply Undervalued: MMY is up 98% YoY, outperforming the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (+50% YoY). Despite this strong performance, MMY trades at 0.9x forward EBITDA vs the peer average of 3.1x, a 72% discount. We believe MMY remains one of the most undervalued profitable junior gold miners in the sector.
Price and Volume (1-year)
*Qualified Person (2019 Resource Estimate) - Frank Blanchfield, an employee of Snowden. All figures in US$ except for share price, MCAP, and our fair value estimates, which are in C$. Monument Mining Limited has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Owns a producing gold mine in Malaysia, and exploration projects in Western Australia
Portfolio Summary
Total independently verified (NI 43-101 compliant) resources of over 1.2 Moz Au across the portfolio
Production (Year-End: June 30th) - Oz
Since commencing sulphide processing in December 2022, MMY has produced 112 Koz through March 2026
Source: FRC / Company
Q3 production +23% YoY and +14% QoQ on higher processing volume following plant optimization, but 1% below our estimate due to lower than expected grades
Cash Costs Per Oz
Cash costs +59% YoY and +8% QoQ to $1,390/oz, mainly due to higher gold-price-linked royalty payments, but came in below our $1,450/oz estimate
Source: FRC / Company
Gross profit +82% YoY and +30% QoQ to $3,776/oz; we forecast Q4 gross profit of $3,105/oz (previously $3,450/oz)
Reserves and Resources (Snowden NI 43-101 Technical Report: 2019)
* Qualified Person - Frank Blanchfield, an employee of Snowden
Source: Company
With 500–600 Koz of sulphide resources remaining, we estimate a mine life of ~12 years
Financials (Year-End: June 30th)
Q3 revenue +137% YoY, EBITDA +171%, and EPS +342%, driven by higher gold prices and production
Revenue missed by 1%, while EPS beat by 3% due to lower expenses
Margins improved YoY across the board, remaining well above sector averages
YTD free cash flows were up 224% YoY
Source: FRC / Company
As a result, the balance sheet strengthened, with $109M in working capital, and no debt
FRC Projections and Valuation
Following Q3 results, we are making modest revisions to our FY2026 forecasts
We have reduced our FY2027 gold price and EPS forecasts
Sector multiples have contracted 32% since our March 2026 report, reflecting weaker gold prices
Source: FRC/S&P Capital IQ
MMY trades at 0.56x forward EV/Revenue vs. 1.49x for peers (63% discount)
MMY trades at 0.89x forward EV/EBITDA vs. 3.14x for peers (72% discount)
Applying sector multiples, we arrived at a fair value estimate of $1.33/share (previously $2.06/share) on the Selinsing mine
Source: FRC
Using a sum-of-parts valuation, we arrived at a fair value estimate of $1.82/share (previously $2.10/share
We are reiterating our BUY rating, and adjusting our fair value estimate from $2.10 to $ 1.82/share. MMY delivered another strong quarter, with higher production, robust earnings growth, and continued exploration success supporting the potential for a mine-life extension. Despite nearly doubling over the past year, we believe the stock remains deeply undervalued relative to peers.
Risks
We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks:
- The value of the company is dependent on gold prices
- FOREX
- Operational
- Exploration and development
We are maintaining our risk rating of 3 (Average)
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