Crude Awakening: Who Gained and Who Lost

PHOS is up 143% since we initiated coverage in July 2025. The company has received conditional approval for up to $16.7M in non-repayable funding from the Government of Canada, to support technical and engineering work validating phosphate concentrate for lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. Phosphate is listed as a critical mineral in both the U.S. and Canada. We view this government support as a strong endorsement of PHOS’s business plan and management team. The company is developing a vertically integrated North American LFP supply chain, from phosphate extraction to cathode active material (CAM) production, targeting key markets, such as energy storage systems (ESS), electric vehicles (EVs), and high-growth sectors, including AI data centers, robotics, and automation.

BNL is up 20% since we initiated coverage last month. The Pinon Canyon plant, BNL’s on-site processing facility, is now fully operational, producing 98% pure helium by separating it from other gases. BNL is generating revenue from one of its three helium projects, and is ramping up output, with a second project expected online later this year.

BNL’s projects could support 15+ years of operations and accommodate four processing plants serving 30+ wells. At full build-out, we estimate US$82M in revenue, and US$53M in operating profit. BNL currently trades at 0.30x our operating profit estimate versus >4x for peers, suggesting the market has yet to recognize its true potential.

COBA has added seven new concessions, covering 2,100 hectares, to its NeoRe rare earth project, signalling management’s intent to build a district-scale land package in the region. NeoRe could host an ionic adsorption clay (IAC) deposit. IAC deposits are important because they are the main source of heavy rare earths like Terbium and Dysprosium, and they are relatively cheap to mine. These deposits are common in China, the world’s largest producer of rare earths, but rare elsewhere. The Western world is looking for domestic sources of rare earths to reduce reliance on China.

Drilling at NeoRe has returned promising values, with up to 1,060 ppm total rare earth elements, and several surface samples exceeding 800 ppm, typical for this type of deposit. Recent exploration has also identified more than 20 additional prospective targets within the district. Management has launched an exploration program aimed at advancing the project.

We have begun due diligence on NIM, and plan to initiate coverage in the coming weeks. The company provides exposure to gallium, copper, nickel, and other critical minerals. Gallium is an essential metal for military and national security applications, including radar systems, missile guidance, and advanced electronics. With most gallium supplied by China, the West, particularly the U.S., is focused on increasing domestic supply.

Rising geopolitical tensions have placed gallium on the U.S. top-tier critical minerals list, as the country relies entirely on imports. We maintain a bullish outlook on such commodities, and anticipate rising investor appetite this year. Gallium is currently a highly overlooked sector, and as the market recognizes its potential, we believe NIM will stand out. The company hosts one of the world’s highest-grade deposits, and is a first-mover in supplying gallium for testing to its U.S. partners.

NIM is advancing the district-scale Mons Project in Western Australia, an area that remains largely unexplored. Mons hosts four targets: Block 3 East, Masson Prospect, Sneaky Squirrel, and Southern Tenements. The company’s flagship discovery in Block 3 East hosts an exceptionally high-grade resource of 740 tonnes of gallium trioxide at 102 g/t Ga₂O₃, well above typical deposits of 30–60 g/t.

CEO Luke Hampson was recently invited to a U.S. trade mission to meet financiers and potential offtake partners. Management has signed a collaboration agreement with U.S.-based M2i Global to potentially supply gallium to the U.S. defense and technology sectors. The company has shipped high-grade ore to the U.S. for metallurgical testing to identify the optimal process for preparing gallium for military applications.

Management and directors own 17% of the company’s equity, with the CEO holding 10%, aligning their interests with other investors. Our upcoming report will provide a detailed analysis, including a fair value estimate.

After a six-year break, we plan to resume coverage on RFR in the coming weeks. We have begun due diligence, and below is a brief overview of the portfolio. The company owns multiple assets in Quebec and Ontario.

One of RFR’s main assets is the Parbec gold project in the Abitibi region of Quebec. A key advantage is its location immediately adjacent to Agnico Eagle Mines’ Canadian Malartic Mine - Canada’s largest open-pit gold mine. Proximity to major operators is important because it allows the company to leverage existing infrastructure such as roads, power, and processing facilities, and it can also make the project a potential M&A target. The region has seen multiple transactions in recent years.

Parbec hosts an independently verified Measured & Indicated resource of 266 Koz of gold (higher confidence), and Inferred resources of 97 Koz (lower confidence). Although the resource is modest in size, it is shallow, and located close to third-party processing facilities in the region. This means no on-site processing plant may be required, potentially allowing a cheaper and faster path to production.

Comparable gold juniors are trading at roughly $60-$80/oz of resources, while RFR is trading at around $25/oz. This suggests the market is not fully valuing Parbec, and is largely ignoring RFR’s other assets, particularly the nickel polymetallic project discussed below.

The company’s second major asset is the Victoria polymetallic deposit near Malartic, Quebec, prospective for nickel, cobalt, platinum, palladium, zinc, copper, silver, and gold. The project hosts an independently verified inferred resource of 413 Mlbs nickel equivalent. Similar to Parbec, the Victoria project benefits from road access, hydroelectric power, and proximity to established mining infrastructure and operating mines.

We believe the market has yet to recognize the potential of RFR’s portfolio, with the stock flat YoY vs a 188% gain for the Global X Gold Explorers ETF. The company plans to monetize select assets to fund the development of its flagship projects. Our upcoming report will provide a detailed analysis, with a fair value estimate.

GEC has sold its remaining Canadian educational assets, transforming into a pure-play student housing company. These assets generated $8.4M in revenue in FY2025 (ended August 2025); deal terms were undisclosed, though our estimate of the sale price is between $7M and $12M.

GEC operates B.C.’s largest off-campus student housing platform, comprising 14 buildings, eight currently operating, and six under development with a total construction budget of $674M.

Key project updates: GEC® Langara recently received rezoning approval, and will be a 26-storey tower generating $13M projected annual revenue; GEC® Oakridge is scheduled for completion in March 2027, with projected annual revenue of $9M; and the Education Mega Center® in Surrey is pending final municipal approvals. Together, these three properties are expected to generate $47M in annual rental revenue once stabilized.

We note that rental assets typically offer inflation-protected income, and relatively steady cash flows, making them attractive to pension funds and institutional investors.

RD has signed an agreement with a major New York insurer, enabling more than 2.4M members across the state to access its services through their health plans. With this addition, RD’s total network reach surpasses 15M members across major U.S. markets, primarily California and New York. The move reflects RD’s strategy of growing its patient base through partnerships with insurers.

RD operates an AI-powered digital health platform that connects physicians and patients virtually. Active in Canada since 2020, the company recently expanded into the U.S., generating revenue primarily from doctor subscriptions, and per-appointment fees. The platform is designed to handle millions of appointments annually with thousands of doctors, supporting scalable, technology-driven healthcare delivery.