Disclosure: Energy Vault Holdings, Inc. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
The analyst’s rating and fair value are one click away. Free FRC account, no credit card.
Already have an account?
Price and Volume (1-year)
* Energy Vault Holdings has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in US$ unless otherwise specified.
Operational Updates
NRGV manages 1,066 MW of assets, unchanged QoQ, with 66 MW operational, and the remainder expected online within two to three years
*Project economics depend on storage duration; duration refers to how long a system can supply power; longer-duration projects earn more EBITDA per MW (e.g., Sosa: two-hour → $0.07/W, Stoney Creek: eight-hour → $0.16/W) .
*Storage duration is set by customer and grid needs. Longer duration requires higher initial CAPEX .
*CAPEX to build a system is ~$0.30 / Wh in the U.S. , and ~$0.20/ Wh outside the U.S.
Source: Company / FRC
Management projects ~$180M in annual EBITDA at full operation, with a long-term target of $1.8B+ from a ~4.8 GW portfolio by 2030
Project Pipeline
In Q2, NRGV’s contracted backlog rose to $2.00B (Q1: $1.35B), with ~60% from its own projects, and the remainder from third-party deployments
The increase reflects its largest contract to date, a 1.25 GW Texas AI data center project expected to generate $500–$600M in revenue over 18 months
Projected Timelines
Source: FRC
As detailed in our previous reports, we view NRGV’s entry into digital infrastructure as a major growth opportunity, driven by accelerating AI adoption, cloud workloads, and rising power demands
Financials
Q2 revenue, dominated by third-party deployments, was up 104% YoY, beating our estimate by 40%
Source: FRC / Company
Quarterly revenue remains difficult to forecast due to variability in project completion timing
Gross margins increased slightly
Operating expenses ↑ 36% YoY, 9% above our estimate
Adjusted EPS ↓ from ($0.12) to ($0.14), due to higher operating expenses, missing our ($0.13) estimate
Cash ↑ 26% QoQ to $148M, supported by higher debt to fund pipeline projects
Source: FRC / Company
Debt-to-capital remains elevated due to a low equity base following several years of losses
FRC Valuation and Rating
We are raising our 2026/27 revenue estimates on higher management guidance, and the new data center contract; 2026 revenue remains heavily weighted to Q4
We are lowering our 2026 EPS estimate on higher operating and interest expenses, while raising 2027+ EPS estimates on the expanded backlog
Source: FRC
As a result, our DCF valuation increased from $8.09 to $8.43/share
Comparables Valuation
*We use the present value of our 2029 EBITDA estimate on NRGV in this calculation.
Source: FRC / S&P Capital IQ
NRGV trades at 12.6x EBITDA (previously 13.0x) vs. a peer average of 15.0x (previously 17.0x), a 16% discount
Applying the sector multiple implies a comparables valuation of $7.63/share (previously $8.23/share), with the lower multiple partly offset by our higher long-term EBITDA forecasts
We reiterate our BUY rating, and adjusting our fair value estimate from $8.15 to $8.03/share (the average of our DCF and comparables valuations). We remain bullish on NRGV’s long-term outlook, supported by its expanding backlog, 1.25 GW AI data center contract, and growing digital infrastructure portfolio. Near-term earnings face pressure from higher operating and interest expenses, but at 12.6x EBITDA, a 16% discount to peers, we see attractive upside as NRGV executes on its AI infrastructure opportunity.
Risks
We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks (not exhaustive):
While the company operates in a relatively low-risk market with potential for long-term steady cash flow, we believe its early-stage deployment of energy storage projects warrants a risk rating of 4 (Speculative)
APPENDIX
