Disclosure: Fortune Minerals Limited has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Price and Volume (1-year)
* Qualified Persons: Robin Goad, M.Sc., P.Geo., President and CEO and Alex Mezei, Chief Metallurgist of Fortune Minerals. Fortune Minerals Limited has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in C$ unless otherwise specified.
Securing Critical Mineral Supply Chains (All figures in US$)
Critical minerals are essential for EVs , batteries, semiconductors, AI, and defense technologies. With global supply chains heavily concentrated in China, securing reliable access to these materials has become a strategic priority for Western economies, particularly the U.S. In response, the U.S. government is supporting a growing pipeline of mining, processing, and refining projects in safe jurisdictions through loans, grants, and strategic partnerships aimed at strengthening domestic and allied supply chains.
Source: USGS
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) maintains an official list of critical minerals considered essential to the U.S. economy, energy transition, and national security
Three of FT’s target metals, bismuth, cobalt, and copper, are included on the U.S. Critical Minerals List
The U.S. relies heavily on imports for most of its cobalt and bismuth
According to the Critical Minerals Institute, the U.S. government allocated ~ $26.2B to 33 publicly listed critical mineral companies between 2023 and 2026. While most projects are U.S.-based, funding has also supported companies operating in Canada, Australia, Greenland, and Africa. Notably, FT was the first Canadian project to receive support under the U.S. Defense Production Act Title III.
Top 10 U.S.-Funded Critical Mineral Projects
Source: FRC / Critical Minerals Institute
Funding commitments have ranged from several million dollars to over $2B per project
FT secured $6.4M in funding in 2024
In early 2026, the U.S. launched Project Vault, a ~$12B program to build a national stockpile of critical minerals, and FORGE, an international partnership with dozens of countries aimed at stabilizing global mineral supply chains
FT continues to engage with governments as a source of funding, including up to $50M from Canada’s Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund for an access road in the NWT, and support from a U.S. defense-related program focused on bismuth supply chain security . These requests follow $17M in prior U.S. and Canadian funding commitments.
In our view, the project’s previous government backing suggests it has already passed initial due diligence, which may improve the likelihood of additional support, though no outcome is guaranteed.
FT's Target Metals: A Brief Overview (All figures in US$)
Gold supported by safe-haven demand; copper remains strong on tightening supply and rising demand
Cobalt
Source: FRC / Various
Cobalt prices remain supported by tightening supply, export controls, and rising battery demand, with the market expected to shift to a deficit in 2026
Bismuth
China’s dominance in refining remains a key structural constraint, amplifying price volatility, and reinforcing the strategic importance of non-Chinese supply chains
Source: FRC / Various
NICO Cobalt-Gold-Bismuth-Copper Project
Location Map
Located 160 km northwest of Yellowknife, and 50 km north of Whati
The project benefits from strong regional infrastructure, including nearby hydro dams, an electric grid within 22 km, the Tlicho highway, and a new rail terminal at Enterprise, 400 km away
Concentrates are expected to be trucked via a proposed mine access road, and the recently completed Tłı̨chǫ highway to Enterprise, then railed to Alberta for refining
Mineral Reserves
Source: Company
The largest primary cobalt deposit in North America
In addition, the deposit hosts 1.1 Moz gold, and the world’s largest bismuth deposit, representing 12% of global reserves
Recent Developments
Positive metallurgical results
Long-delayed acquisition finally closed, removing a key project overhang
Planned Alberta Refinery Site
Source: Company
A 77-acre land package located 30 km northeast of Edmonton, and 15 km from Sherritt’s (TSX: S) nickel-cobalt processing plant
We believe the site’s location is ideal, offering close proximity to a rail line, and key resources such as water, natural gas, power, sulfuric acid, and other reagents
Source: Company
The 2014 FS returned an AT-NPV7% of $224M, using $16/lb cobalt (spot: $26/lb)
While costs have risen significantly since the previous study, we believe higher metal prices more than offset inflationary pressures, supporting stronger project economics
Updated Feasibility Study to Reflect Major Improvements
Source: FRC
We anticipate the ongoing updated feasibility study will reflect major improvements
Financials
FT recently refinanced its maturing debt with a new convertible financing, offering a more flexible equity-linked structure, and signaling institutional support and confidence in FT’s outlook.
At the end of Q1-2026, the company had $12M in debt maturing in April 2026
This was addressed through a new $10M convertible financing from the Lind Partners, an institutional fund manager
Source: FRC / Company
~$17M in government funding commitments, with $9M received to date
In-the-money options and warrants can bring in ~$5M
FRC Valuation & Rating
Source: FRC
Our DCF valuation increased from $0.42 to $0.63/share, primarily driven by an increase in our long-term gold price forecast from $2,000 to $3,500/oz since our last report
Sensitivity Analysis
Source: FRC
Our valuation remains highly sensitive to commodity prices
We reiterate our BUY rating, and adjust our fair value estimate from $0.42 to $0.63/share. FT is entering a key phase, supported by strong critical metals momentum, advancing project fundamentals, and growing government focus on securing non-China critical mineral supply chains. We believe recent operational, financing, and permitting progress has strengthened FT’s outlook ahead of key catalysts, including an updated feasibility study, permitting milestones, and potential government funding support.
Risks
We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks (not exhaustive):
We are maintaining our risk rating of 5 (Highly Speculative)
