Disclosure: Olympia Financial Group Inc. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
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Price and Volume (1-year)
* Olympia Financial Group has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in C$ unless otherwise specified.
The leading Canadian custodian/ administrator of alternative investments
OLY’s platform supports a broad range of investments typically not offered by banks or traditional trading platforms
Primary Services
In 2025, revenue mix remained stable: 78% from IAS (77% in 2024), 10% from private health services (unchanged), and 12% (13% in 2024) from other services
Source: Company / FRC
In 2025, client assets rose 10% YoY to $13.21B, 0.3% above our forecast
We are raising our 2026 year-end estimate by 0.2% to $13.96B
Financials (Year-End: Dec 31st)
Revenue declined 3.9% YoY, but exceeded our forecast by 0.6%, driven by lower interest on unallocated client capital
Importantly, services revenue from core divisions (IAS and Private Health Services) was up 9% YoY, driven by higher transaction volumes
*The primary source of revenue in the “Trust, Interest, & Other” category is the interest earned on placing undeployed client capital in cash accounts at major Canadian banks.
*Service revenue includes annual and transaction fees
*‘Trust, interest, and other’ primarily includes interest revenue
G&A expenses rose 1% YoY, coming in 0.3% below our forecast
Source: FRC / Company
EPS declined 17% YoY, primarily due to weaker revenue, but exceeded our forecast by 1.6%
Source: Company/FRC
Dividends held steady at $7.20/year, aligning with our estimate
The payout ratio was 87% in 2025 vs the historic average of 72%
Source: Company/FRC
Strong balance sheet
FRC Projections and Valuation
With client assets growing ahead of expectations, we are raising our 2026 revenue and EPS forecasts accordingly
Source: FRC
As a result, our DCF valuation increased from $147 to $154/share
Source: FRC/S&P Capital IQ
With sector multiples down 3% since our November 2025 report, our comparables valuation fell from $186 to $181/share
We are reiterating our BUY rating, and adjusting our fair value estimate from $166.83 to $167.49/share (the average of our DCF and comparables valuations), implying a potential return of 43% (including dividends) in the next 12 months. OLY delivered resilient results with strong client asset growth and services revenue, while interest revenue may stabilize as rates level off. Trading at a 19% discount to the sector average , and with a 5.88% yield, we believe OLY offers attractive income , and potential upside from expansion in Ontario, Canada’s largest province.
Risks
We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks (not exhaustive):
Maintaining our risk rating of 3 (Average)
APPENDIX
