We reiterate our BUY rating, and adjust our fair value estimate from $12.82 to $12.49/share, implying a potential return of 19% (including dividends) in the next 12 months. Despite a weaker than expected Q3, management’s target of exceeding $900M in mortgages outstanding by year-end is encouraging.
Disclosure: Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. This fee creates a potential conflict of interest which readers should consider. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
All figures in C$ unless otherwise stated.
Price and Volume (1-year)
| YTD | YOY | |
|---|---|---|
| AI | -2% | 0% |
| TSX | 12% | 20% |
| XFN (Financial) | 20% | 31% |
| XRE (REIT) | 1% | 1% |
| Key Financials (FYE - Dec 31) (C$) | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026(F) | 2027(F) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Receivables(net) | $876,733,000 | $863,169,000 | $892,456,000 | $901,380,560 | $923,915,074 |
| Revenue | $98,574,000 | $97,263,000 | $85,144,000 | $76,789,856 | $77,118,741 |
| Net Income | $51,485,000 | $47,852,000 | $49,065,000 | $45,128,860 | $44,446,149 |
| EPS | $1.18 | $1.06 | $1.03 | $0.94 | $0.93 |
| Dividends per Share | $1.19 | $1.06 | $1.03 | $0.93 | $0.92 |
Q3 loan advances declined 17% YoY, improving from a 40% decline in H1. Also, repayments declined 30% YoY.
First mortgage mix, lending rates, and average mortgage size remained relatively flat. LTV increased slightly, indicating marginally higher risk. However, increased exposure to revenue generating commercial properties, and already built single-family units, while scaling back on residential development projects, implying a lower risk profile.
| Portfolio Statistics | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q1-2026 | Q2-2026 | Q3-2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Mortgages | 94.6% | 96.7% | 95.2% | 95.3% | 96.9% | 96.8% |
| Others | 5.4% | 3.3% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.2% |
| Total | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Weighted Average Interest Rate (p.a.) | 11.4% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 8.6% |
| Weighted Average Term (months) | 9.2 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 11.6 | 12.6 | 11.9 |
| LTV | 61.4% | 61.9% | 61.4% | 61.4% | 62.5% | 63.2% |
| Average Mortgage (in $, M) | $3.7 | $3.0 | $2.8 | $2.7 | $2.7 | $2.6 |
| Median Mortgage ($, M) | $0.7 | $0.7 | $0.5 | $0.5 | $0.5 | $0.5 |
| $0 - $2.5M | 12.30% | 16.80% | 16.20% | 17.20% | 16.4% | 16.6% |
| $2.5M - $10.0M | 27.60% | 24.70% | 24.30% | 25.40% | 27.30% | 29.40% |
| $10.0M+ | 60.10% | 58.50% | 59.50% | 57.40% | 56.30% | 54.00% |
| Total | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
Net mortgages outstanding rose 1% QoQ to $843M, below our $870M estimate; management maintained its >$900M year-end target, supported by a robust origination pipeline, a very encouraging signal.
Mortgages by Property Type
| Property type | As at September 30, 2026 | As at December 31, 2025 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number | Carrying amount | % of Portfolio | Number | Carrying amount | % of Portfolio | |
| High-rise residential | 14 | $ 178,480 | 20.5% | 18 | $ 245,843 | 26.8% |
| Mid-rise residential | 12 | 87,590 | 10.1% | 13 | 103,088 | 11.3% |
| Low-rise residential | 12 | 117,089 | 13.5% | 13 | 127,504 | 13.9% |
| House and apartment | 261 | 219,168 | 25.2% | 251 | 176,254 | 19.2% |
| Condominium corporation | 4 | 992 | 0.1% | 4 | 1,091 | 0.1% |
| Residential portfolio | 303 | 603,319 | 69.4% | 299 | 653,780 | 71.3% |
| Commercial | 32 | 265,756 | 30.6% | 27 | 263,294 | 28.7% |
| Mortgage portfolio | 335 | 869,075 | 100.0% | 326 | 917,074 | 100.0% |
| Accrued interest receivable | 5,011 | 6,378 | ||||
| Mortgage discount | (33) | (280) | ||||
| Unamortized origination fees | (236) | (240) | ||||
| Allowance for credit losses | (30,996) | (30,476) | ||||
| Mortgages receivable | $ 842,821 | $ 892,456 | ||||
Reduced Ontario exposure, improving geographic diversification. Management plans to further expand into Alberta and B.C. in the coming quarters.
Mortgages by Region
Stage 3 (impaired) mortgages remained relatively flat QoQ.
| Portfolio Statistics | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q1-2026 | Q2-2026 | Q3-2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage Three (impaired) - $000s | $36,743 | $29,014 | $86,046 | $94,837 | $61,529 | $60,946 |
| % of Receivables (gross) | 4.1% | 3.3% | 9.4% | 10.6% | 7.2% | 7.0% |
| Allowance for Losses ($000s) | $22,600 | $29,556 | $30,476 | $31,065 | $30,139 | $30,996 |
| Mortgage Receivable ($000s), gross | $893,559 | $886,698 | $917,074 | $896,229 | $860,055 | $869,075 |
| % of Receivables (gross) | 2.53% | 3.33% | 3.32% | 3.47% | 3.50% | 3.57% |
| Actual Loss (FRC est.) | $0 | $6,615,000 | $3,548,000 | $67,000 | $1,064,000 | $597,000 |
| % of Receivables (gross) | 0.00% | 0.74% | 0.39% | 0.01% | 0.12% | 0.07% |
Overall, we believe portfolio risk has decreased, with two green signals vs. one negative.
| Parameter | Risk Profile |
|---|---|
| Avg. Mortgage Size | - |
| Geographical Diversification | ↑ (green) |
| Debt to Capital | - |
| Priority | - |
| LTV | ↑ (red) |
| Property Type (lower-risk properties) | ↑ (green) |
| Defaults | - |
Revenue declined 11% YoY (1% below our estimate), while EPS fell 12% YoY (3% below our estimate), driven by lower lending rates, and mortgage receivables. Despite this, monthly dividend remains unchanged at $0.0775/share, or $0.93 annually.
| Key Financials (FYE - Dec 31) (C$) | H1-2025 | H1-2026 | YoY | Q3-2025 | Q3-2026 | YoY | 2025 (9M) | 2026 (9M) | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Receivables(net) | $897,767,000 | $834,428,000 | -7% | $893,266,000 | $842,821,000 | -6% | $893,266,000 | $842,821,000 | -6% |
| Revenue | $43,148,000 | $38,508,000 | -11% | $21,037,000 | $18,727,000 | -11% | $64,185,000 | $57,235,000 | -11% |
| Net Income | $25,014,000 | $23,747,000 | -5% | $11,900,000 | $10,522,000 | -12% | $36,914,000 | $34,269,000 | -7% |
| EPS | $0.53 | $0.49 | -8% | $0.25 | $0.22 | -12% | $0.78 | $0.71 | -9% |
| Dividends per Share | $0.47 | $0.47 | 0% | $0.23 | $0.23 | 0% | $0.70 | $0.70 | 0% |
| % of Receivables (net) -annualized | Q1-2026 | Q2-2026 | Q3-2025 | Q3-2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Interest Income + Origination | 9.00% | 8.77% | 9.40% | 8.93% |
| Less: | ||||
| Management Fee | 0.98% | 0.96% | 0.98% | 1.00% |
| Loan Loss Provision / Others | 0.29% | 0.09% | 0.58% | 0.66% |
| G&A Expenses | 0.21% | 0.29% | 0.18% | 0.23% |
| Interest Expenses | 2.04% | 1.89% | 2.31% | 1.98% |
| Share Based Payments/Others | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 0.03% |
| Net | 5.45% | 5.50% | 5.32% | 5.02% |
| Dividends % of Book Value | 8.48% | 8.47% | 8.44% | 8.47% |
| Dividends Declared | $11,170,000 | $11,216,000 | $11,087,000 | $11,254,000 |
Debt-to-capital remained relatively flat, in line with limited changes in mortgage receivables.
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Q1-2026 | Q2-2026 | Q3-2026 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgages receivable, net | $876,733,000 | $863,169,000 | $892,456,000 | $870,778,000 | $834,428,000 | $842,821,000 |
| Working capital | $640,732,000 | $651,754,000 | $597,427,000 | $600,922,000 | $603,642,000 | $604,971,000 |
| LT debt | $158,526,000 | $134,774,000 | $72,373,000 | $72,517,000 | $72,826,000 | $72,972,000 |
| Debt | $375,515,000 | $328,354,000 | $355,387,000 | $335,381,000 | $296,946,000 | $303,976,000 |
| Total Capital | $857,721,000 | $845,334,000 | $880,441,000 | $863,786,000 | $827,762,000 | $835,975,000 |
| Debt to Capital | 43.8% | 38.8% | 40.4% | 38.8% | 35.9% | 36.4% |
Following the Q3 miss, we are lowering our FY2026 revenue and EPS estimates.
| 2026E (Old) | 2026E (New) | 2027E (Old) | 2027E (New) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortgage Receivables (net) | $901,380,560 | $901,380,560 | $923,915,074 | $923,915,074 |
| Revenue | $77,573,426 | $76,789,856 | $77,118,741 | $77,118,741 |
| Net Income | $46,499,165 | $45,128,860 | $45,310,042 | $44,446,149 |
| EPS | $0.97 | $0.94 | $0.95 | $0.93 |
| Dividend | $0.96 | $0.93 | $0.94 | $0.92 |
Our estimate for the 2026 dividend varies between $0.89 and $0.96/share, as loan loss provisions and lending rates vary.
| 2026 Dividend Estimate | YoY Decline in the Weighted Average Lending Rate in 2026 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.80% | 0.90% | 1.00% | 1.20% | 1.40% | ||
| Loan Loss Provisions % of Receivables (2025) | 0.15% | $1.00 | $0.98 | $0.97 | $0.94 | $0.91 |
| 0.25% | $0.98 | $0.96 | $0.95 | $0.92 | $0.90 | |
| 0.35% | $0.96 | $0.95 | $0.93 | $0.91 | $0.88 | |
| 0.45% | $0.94 | $0.93 | $0.91 | $0.89 | $0.86 | |
| 55.50% | -$9.26 | -$9.27 | -$9.29 | -$9.31 | -$9.34 | |
Sector multiples are down 8% since our August 2026 report. Meanwhile, on average, MICs and banks are expected to report 6% revenue growth this year, no change from last year (Source: S&P Capital IQ). Our fair value estimate decreased from $12.82 to $12.49/share, driven by a lower EPS forecast, and weaker sector multiples.
| Name | 2025 Revenue (% Change) | 2026E Revenue (% Change) | P/E (forward) | P/B | Dividend Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Firm Capital | -5.9% | -11.4% | 10.88 | 0.92 | 9.60% |
| 2 Timbercreek Financial | -26.7% | -1.8% | 10.71 | 0.67 | 13.10% |
| 3 MCAN Mortgage Corporation | 2.5% | 15.7% | 10.31 | 1.30 | 7.80% |
| 4 Atrium Mortgage | -12.5% | -9.8% | 12.03 | 1.03 | 8.23% |
| Average | -5.3% | -1.8% | 10.98 | 0.98 | 9.68% |
| Average - Aug 2026 | 11.85 | 1.07 | 8.85% | ||
| Average - Nov 2025 | 11.48 | 1.07 | 8.59% | ||
| Average - Nov 2024 | 11.25 | 1.02 | 8.60% | ||
| Average - Nov 2023 | 9.10 | 0.88 | 10.10% | ||
| Average - Nov 2022 | 11.50 | 1.00 | 8.80% | ||
| Average - Nov 2021 | 15.01 | 1.26 | 6.97% | ||
| 1 EQB Inc. | -2.1% | 22.8% | 13.89 | 1.30 | 2.00% |
| 2 Royal Bank of Canada | 15.0% | 8.7% | 17.34 | 3.00 | 2.50% |
| 3 Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce | 13.5% | 13.5% | 15.39 | 2.20 | 2.60% |
| 4 The Bank of Nova Scotia | 7.3% | 7.6% | 15.19 | 1.80 | 3.50% |
| 5 The Toronto-Dominion Bank | 18.8% | 8.5% | 17.09 | 2.30 | 2.60% |
| 6 Bank of Montreal | 12.5% | 8.3% | 16.38 | 2.00 | 2.80% |
| Average | 10.8% | 11.6% | 15.88 | 2.10 | 2.67% |
| Average - Aug 2026 | 16.64 | 2.20 | 2.63% | ||
| Average - Nov 2025 | 13.12 | 1.54 | 3.43% | ||
| Average - Nov 2024 | 11.56 | 1.39 | 3.96% | ||
| Average - Nov 2023 | 8.70 | 1.10 | 5.00% | ||
| Average - Nov 2022 | 9.50 | 1.30 | 4.40% | ||
| Average - Nov 2021 | 10.73 | 1.61 | 3.24% | ||
| Average Metrics Used for Valuation | 13.65 | 1.13 | 7.65% | ||
| Fair Value of AI (based on 2026 est.) | $12.86 | $12.43 | $12.19 | ||
| Average | $12.49 | ||||
We reiterate our BUY rating, and adjust our fair value estimate from $12.82 to $12.49/share, implying a potential return of 19% (including dividends) in the next 12 months. Despite a weaker than expected Q3, management’s target of exceeding $900M in mortgages outstanding by year-end is encouraging. Improving portfolio quality, and geographic diversification, provide further support, although elevated borrowing costs, and a subdued real estate market remain key risks.
Maintaining our risk rating of 3 (Average). We believe the company is exposed to the following risks:
| Income Statement YE - December 31 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026(F) | 2027(F) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | |||||
| Mortgage interest and other fees | $98,574,000 | $97,263,000 | $85,144,000 | $76,789,856 | $77,118,741 |
| Total Revenues | $98,574,000 | $97,263,000 | $85,144,000 | $76,789,856 | $77,118,741 |
| Expenses | |||||
| G&A | $987,000 | $935,000 | $1,900,000 | $2,197,450 | $2,235,987 |
| Mortgage servicing and mgmt fees | $8,465,000 | $8,558,000 | $8,790,000 | $8,700,107 | $9,126,478 |
| Share based payments | $341,000 | $321,000 | $298,000 | $304,486 | $309,826 |
| Interest + Bank Charges | $15,631,000 | $16,457,000 | $13,199,000 | $12,594,159 | $13,112,395 |
| Interest on convertible debenture | $10,292,000 | $9,524,000 | $7,325,000 | $4,725,580 | $4,725,580 |
| Loan loss provision | $11,894,000 | $13,571,000 | $4,468,000 | $3,139,214 | $3,162,325 |
| Impairments / Others | -$521,000 | $45,000 | $99,000 | - | - |
| Total Expenses | 47,089,000 | 49,411,000 | 36,079,000 | 31,660,997 | 32,672,592 |
| Net Income | $51,485,000 | $47,852,000 | $49,065,000 | $45,128,860 | $44,446,149 |
| EPS | $1.18 | $1.06 | $1.03 | $0.94 | $0.93 |
| Cash Flow Statement YE - December 31 | 2026(F) | 2027(F) |
|---|---|---|
| Cash From Operating Activities | $43,029,453 | $45,177,736 |
| Investing Activities | ||
| Mortgage investments(net) | -$8,924,560 | -$22,534,514 |
| Cash From Operating Activities | $34,104,893 | $22,643,222 |
| Financing Activities | ||
| Credit facility | $11,023,967 | $21,802,926 |
| Cash dividends | -$45,128,860 | -$44,446,149 |
| Convertible debentures | ||
| Cash From Financing Activities | -$34,104,893 | -$22,643,223 |
| Balance Sheet YE - December 31 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026(F) | 2027(F) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assets | |||||
| Cash | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| Mortgages receivable, net | $876,733,000 | $863,169,000 | $892,456,000 | $901,380,560 | $923,915,074 |
| Foreclosed properties | $1,101,000 | $1,101,000 | $1,101,000 | $1,101,000 | $1,101,000 |
| Prepaid Expenses | $43,000 | $34,000 | $76,000 | $83,600 | $91,960 |
| Total Asset | $877,877,000 | $864,304,000 | $893,633,000 | $902,565,160 | $925,108,034 |
| Liabilities | |||||
| Credit facility | $216,989,000 | $193,580,000 | $283,014,000 | $294,037,967 | $315,840,893 |
| A/P | $4,109,000 | $7,768,000 | $4,686,000 | $5,154,600 | $5,670,060 |
| Dividend payable | $16,047,000 | $11,202,000 | $8,506,000 | $5,641,107 | $5,555,769 |
| Convertible debenture | $158,526,000 | $134,774,000 | $72,373,000 | $72,373,000 | $72,373,000 |
| Total Liabilities | $395,671,000 | $347,324,000 | $368,579,000 | $377,206,674 | $399,439,722 |
| Share capital | $478,903,000 | $513,811,000 | $522,028,000 | $522,028,000 | $522,028,000 |
| Contributed surplus | $2,531,000 | $2,976,000 | $3,518,000 | $3,822,486 | $4,132,312 |
| Debenture (Equity) | $3,786,000 | $3,526,000 | $2,827,000 | $2,827,000 | $2,827,000 |
| Retained Earnings | -$3,014,000 | -$3,333,000 | -$3,319,000 | -$3,319,000 | -$3,319,000 |
| Total Shareholders Equity | $482,206,000 | $516,980,000 | $525,054,000 | $525,358,486 | $525,668,312 |
| Total SE + Liabilities | $877,877,000 | $864,304,000 | $893,633,000 | $902,565,160 | $925,108,034 |
Sid Rajeev, B.Tech, MBA, CFA — Head of Research, Fundamental Research Corp.
The full report — the designed PDF with all charts and the complete disclosure — remains available as published, free of charge with a free account. This page is the same analysis in the form a search engine, an AI assistant and a phone screen can read.
Buy – Fair value is 12% above the current market price; or risk and reward is favorable
Hold – Fair value is between 5% to 12% above the current market price
Sell – Fair value is 5% above, or less, than the current market value; or risk and reward is unfavorable
Suspended or Rating N/A— Coverage and ratings suspended until more information can be obtained from the company regarding recent events.
1 (Low Risk) - The company operates in an industry where it has a strong position (for example a monopoly, high market share etc.) or operates in a regulated industry. The future outlook is stable or positive for the industry. The company generates positive free cash flow and has a history of profitability. The capital structure is conservative with little or no debt.
2 (Below Average Risk) - The company operates in an industry where the fundamentals and outlook are positive. The industry and company are relatively less sensitive to systematic risk than companies with a Risk Rating of 3. The company has a history of profitability and has demonstrated its ability to generate positive free cash flows (though current free cash flow may be negative due to capital investment). The company’s capital structure is conservative with little to modest use of debt.
3 (Average Risk) - The company operates in an industry that has average sensitivity to systematic risk. The industry may be cyclical. Profits and cash flow are sensitive to economic factors although the company has demonstrated its ability to generate positive earnings and cash flow. Debt use is in line with industry averages, and coverage ratios are sufficient.
4 (Speculative) - The company has little or no history of generating earnings or cash flow. Debt use is higher. These companies may be in start-up mode or in a turnaround situation. These companies should be considered speculative.
5 (Highly Speculative) - The company has no history of generating earnings or cash flow. They may operate in a new industry with new, and unproven products. Products may be at the development stage, testing, or seeking regulatory approval. These companies may run into liquidity issues and may rely on external funding. These stocks are considered highly speculative.
Definition of FRC’s Fair Value Estimate – Our fair value estimate is the theoretical value of the company’s equity using widely accepted methods of valuation such as discount cash flow or comparables. IT IS NOT A TARGET PRICE or PREDICTION OF THE FUTURE STOCK PRICE.
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Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. The analyst and Fundamental Research Corp. “FRC” does not own any shares of the subject company, does not make a market or offer shares for sale of the subject company, and does not have any investment banking business with the subject company. Fees ranging between $25,000 and $35,000 have been paid to FRC by Atrium Mortgage to commission this report, research coverage, and distribution of reports. This fee creates a potential conflict of interest which readers should consider. FRC takes steps to mitigate conflicts including setting fees in advance and utilizing analysts who must abide by CFA Institute Code of Ethics and Standards of Professional Conduct. Additionally, analysts may not trade in any security under coverage. Our full editorial control of all research, timing of release of the reports, and release of liability for negative reports are protected contractually. The issuer has agreed to a minimum coverage term and coverage cannot be unilaterally terminated. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time.
The distribution of FRC’s ratings are as follows: BUY (76%), HOLD (2%), SELL / SUSPEND (28%).
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Management’s Robust Q4 Outlook Stands Out Amid Sector Headwinds
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