Graphite One Inc.
Advancing with Strong U.S. Government Support
ByFRC Analysts
Disclosure: Graphite One Inc. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
- Permitting advances: Federal permitting for Graphite Creek remains on track, with a Record of Decision targeted for September 2026. We believe the U.S. has a pressing need for domestic graphite production, as it currently imports 100% of its natural graphite requirements, and has designated graphite as a critical mineral. While the global graphite market is currently in surplus, we anticipate a supply deficit by the end of the decade, supporting a positive long-term price outlook.
- Largest graphite deposit in the Americas: Graphite Creek hosts the largest known graphite deposit in the Americas. GPH plans to develop a fully integrated U.S. graphite supply chain, mining graphite at Graphite Creek and processing it into concentrates, before shipping them to a proposed Ohio facility to produce AAM used in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage systems. A 2025 Bankable Feasibility Study (20-year mine life) estimated an after-tax NPV8% of $5B, compared to GPH's current enterprise value of $152M, implying its shares trade at just 3% of NPV.
- Phased development strategy lowers risk: Rather than building its fully integrated supply chain upfront, GPH plans to initially develop the Ohio AAM facility while advancing Graphite Creek toward production. The first phase of the facility, with an estimated CAPEX of $73M, is expected to be completed by late 2027, creating a lower-cost pathway to production.
- Strong financial position: $29M in cash, with an additional $11M potentially available from in-the-money options and warrants. Construction of the Ohio facility is expected to begin in Q1-2027, with EXIM potentially financing up to 70% of CAPEX, and the balance funded through an equity or lease financing in Q4-2026.
- Upcoming catalysts: Permitting, project financing, and potential offtake agreements. We continue to view GPH as a compelling acquisition target for mining, battery, and technology companies seeking secure domestic graphite supply.
Price and Volume (1-year)
*Sprott Critical Materials ETF
* Qualified Person: Robert M. Retherford, P.Geo., an Independent Consultant of Graphite One Inc. (GPH). Graphite One Inc. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in US$ except share price, MCAP, and fair value.
Graphite Creek is located 60 km north of Nome, Alaska; seasonal port access
Project Location
A remote site with no current road or grid power access
Access planned via a new road connecting to the Nome–Teller highway
to support future mining operations
2024 Resource Estimate
Power to be supplied by diesel generation; water sourced from nearby rivers and streams
Proposed Pit Overlaying Electromagnetic (EM) Anomaly
Source: Company
Graphite Creek is the largest known graphite deposit in the Americas; only 12% of a 15.3 km mineralized zone has been fully tested, leaving significant room for resource growth
Source: FRC
A mine-to-market supply chain linking Graphite Creek with a planned Ohio facility producing Active Anode Material (AAM)
2025 BFS Highlights
A 2025 Bankable Feasibility Study, based on a 20 year mine life, returned an after tax NPV8% of $5B
Source: Company / FRC
GPH's $152M enterprise value implies its shares trade at just 3% of the project's independent valuation
Like most large-scale mining projects, development is capital intensive, with initial CAPEX estimated at $4B, including $1B for the mine, and $3B for the Ohio STP
Phased Development Strategy to Accelerate Cash Flow
Given the significant capital required to develop the fully integrated Graphite Creek project, management is pursuing a phased strategy to accelerate cash flow, and reduce financing risk. While advancing Graphite Creek toward potential production by 2030, GPH plans to prioritize the construction of its Ohio STP, initially sourcing graphite from external suppliers before transitioning to feedstock from Graphite Creek once the mine enters production.
Source: FRC
We believe the modular approach enables gradual production growth while significantly limiting upfront CAPEX ($73M vs $4B)
GPH plans a modular buildout, with each module capable of producing 25 ktpy of AAM. An AAM module includes three key processes: Purification, Graphitization, and Finishing & Blending. Rather than building the full module upfront, GPH intends to start with a 10,000 tpy Finishing & Blending facility requiring just $73M in CAPEX, and targeted for completion by late 2027. The remaining processes would be added over time, creating a lower-risk pathway to full-scale production.
Funding Agreements & Endorsements
While the company’s strategy involves multiple stages and execution milestones, including permitting, it continues to receive strong support from industry and government entities, providing validation of the business plan and confidence in its execution.
Source: FRC
GPH has secured a mix of strategic agreements, grants, and investments from industry partners, government bodies, and native corporations
To date, three of the 12 local native groups have invested in GPH, underscoring strong community support
Recent Developments
Source: FRC
Since our October 2025 report, GPH has strengthened financing support, selected a site for its Ohio facility, and identified rare earth element mineralization at Graphite Creek, though exploration remains at an early stage
Financials
Strong cash position, with $29M in cash, and up to $11M from in-the-money options and warrants
Ohio facility construction is targeted for Q1-2027, with EXIM funding up to 70% of CAPEX, and the balance potentially via equity or lease financing
Source: FRC / Company
FRC Valuation & Rating (all figures in C$)
Source: S&P Capital IQ / Various / FRC
GPH is trading at $20/t (previously $28/t), compared with the sector average of $32/t (previously $40/t), a 36% discount
Applying the sector average yields a comparables valuation of $1.61/share (previously $2.20/share), reflecting lower sector multiples and share dilution since our previous report
Our DCF valuation declined to $3.39/share from $3.50/share, primarily due to share dilution
Source: FRC
We reiterate our BUY rating, and adjust our fair value estimate from $ 2.85 to $2.50 /share. We believe GPH is well positioned to become a U.S. supplier of graphite and battery materials, supported by strong government backing. Despite this progress, its shares continue to trade at a significant discount to comparables and project NPV.
Risks
We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks (not exhaustive):
- The value of the company depends on graphite prices
- Permitting
- Access to capital and potential share dilution
- Remote location and limited seasonal site access
- High CAPEX requirements and execution risk
- Several development milestones must be achieved to reach commercial production
We are maintaining our risk rating of 5 (Highly Speculative)
