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Price and Volume (1-year)
* QP: A. David Heyl, C.P.G., Consultant for Silver X Mining. Silver X Mining has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in US$ unless, except for share price, fair value estimates, and MCAP data, which are in C$.
The Nueva Recuperada project includes the producing Tangana mine unit (TMU), with a 720 tpd processing plant, the advanced-stage Plata mining unit (PMU), and four exploration projects
Project Overview
The 2025 PEA highlights the potential to increase annual production from ~1 Moz to 6+ Moz
AGX’s expansion plan involves two milling facilities: a new 1,500 tpd mill at Tangana, and the existing Recuperada mill (15 km south of Tangana), which will be expanded from 720 tpd to 1,500 tpd
(QP: A. David Heyl, C.P.G., Consultant for Silver X Mining)
Source: Company
Recuperada will be dedicated to processing ore from the PMU
The PEA returned an AT-NPV10% of $303M, using $33/oz silver (spot: $73/oz), and $12/oz in cash costs
Source: Company
The PEA accounted for just 64% of resources, indicating further upside for NPV and IRR
Production and Key Operating Metrics
2025 production fell 26% YoY to 812 koz, driven by lower throughput and grades, but was almost exactly in line with our 811 koz estimate
Higher metal prices supported revenue, partially offsetting the impact of lower production
Throughput declined due to temporary contractor-related issues, now resolved
Source: FRC/Company
While silver grades increased YoY, average silver equivalent grades declined due to lower zinc and lead grades, along with a sharp rise in silver prices relative to other metals, impacting the silver equivalent calculation
We expect grades across all metals to improve going forward, as 2025 levels were materially below those in the resource estimate
Source: FRC/Company
In Q1-2026, AGX raised throughput 8% QoQ; March hit 690 tpd vs. 463 tpd in Q4-2025, supporting a strong 2026 production outlook
2025 cash costs rose 28% YoY, but came in 5% below our estimate
Near-term plans include:
Financials
2025 revenue rose 15% YoY on higher metal prices, partly offset by lower production, and beat our estimate by 8%
EBITDA was up 303% YoY
Source: FRC/Company
Adj. EPS improved YoY, from ($0.02) to $0.001 vs. our forecast of ($0.005), marking a key milestone in the shift to profitability
The adjusted 2025 EPS mentioned above does not include a one-time $5M non-cash provision related to historical unpaid fines issued by local regulatory authorities , in connection with infrastructure and environmental matters at the processing plant , under previous ownership. Management indicates that the relevant compliance issues have since been corrected, with final resolution expected shortly. In our models, we assume the full $5M provisioned amount will ultimately be paid.
Margins improved across the board on higher metal prices
Funds from operations rose 464% YoY, while free cash flow declined, due to higher exploration spend, and increased receivables from December 2025 revenue, collected in early 2026; therefore, the FCF decline is not a concern
Working capital improved QoQ, from ($15M) to +$6M
In Q1-2026, AGX raised $50M via convertible debentures, and $3M from warrants/options, lifting working capital to $47M, and strengthening the balance sheet
Can raise another $18M from in-the-money options/warrants
FRC Projections
Source: FRC
Given the potential ramp-up in production this year, and the recent step-up in metal prices, we are raising our 2026 revenue and EPS forecasts
Comparables Valuation
Source: FRC / S&P Capital IQ / Various
AGX’s forward EV/Revenue is 1.57x vs the sector average of 3.64x, a 57% discount
AGX’s forward EV/EBITDA is 3.40x vs the sector average of 6.04x, a 44% discount
Applying the sector averages, we arrived at a comparable valuation of $1.88/share (previously $1.64/share), driven by our higher revenue and EBITDA forecasts
DCF Valuation
Source: FRC
Our DCF valuation rose from $1.04 to $1.20/share
Our valuation remains highly sensitive to metal prices
We are reiterating our BUY rating , and adjusting our fair value estimate from $1.34 to $1.54/share (the average of our DCF and comparables valuations). AGX has delivered strong momentum, with a 387% YoY share price gain, improving profitability, and a significantly strengthened balance sheet following recent financings. Looking ahead, growth is supported by expanding capacity, and a strong silver backdrop, yet AGX trades at a 50% discount to junior silver miners, suggesting its growth potential remains underappreciated.
Risks
We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks:
Maintaining our risk rating of 4 (Speculative)
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