Big Catalysts Ahead as Middle East Tensions Tighten Potash Supply

• Geopolitical Tensions Drive Potash Market Tightness: Prices have risen 11% YoY to $373/t, driven by persistent supply constraints, and a fourth consecutive year of demand growth. Supply tightness reflects sanctions on Belarus and Russia, which account for ~35% of global production, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, where Israel and Jordan together produce ~10% of global output, elevated U.S.–Canada trade risks, and project delays. Global demand is forecast to grow 2–3% in 2026, and prices are expected to remain elevated due to continued supply pressures, geopolitical uncertainties, and trade risks.
• Strong Stock Performance: Despite a recent pullback, MLP is up 194% YoY, outpacing the TSXV (+44% YoY), and the S&P Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals index (+28% YoY). Since our December 2025 report, the company has completed an $18M equity raise, and launched both an Environmental & Social Impact Assessment (ESIA), and an advanced independent economic (feasibility) study. Both are expected to be completed in H2-2026, and submitted to the Gabonese government for a mining license. If approved, we believe production could start by 2028–2029.

• Institutional Backing Strengthens: MLP’s largest shareholder, Quaternary Group Ltd. (a Singapore-based investment firm), acquired 2.84M shares, and now owns 24% of the company. Undisclosed global asset management firms also participated in the above-mentioned equity raise, underscoring institutional confidence in the company.
• Expanded Project Area: MLP secured a new 261 km² exploration permit, adjacent to its main permit, increasing the total project area to 1,500 km². The new permit includes a coastal road and ocean access, offering key infrastructure support for future development.
• Favorable Market Position: Last year, the U.S. added potash to its Critical Minerals list due to high import dependence, prompting the U.S. Development Finance Corporation to commit $4.10M to advance the Banio project feasibility study. Banio could become the first African potash mine supplying the U.S.
• Robust Resource & Economics: Banio hosts a large potash resource. A 2024 independent economic study (PEA) reported an After-Tax NPV10% of $1.47B. With MLP’s MCAP at $226M, shares trade at just 15% of NPV.
• Upcoming Exploration: MLP will drill the new permit area (Q3-2026) to test whether the resource extends from the main property.
• M&A Potential: We remain bullish on the company’s M&A prospects. Management and insiders own 33% of MLP, and have a strong track record, including exits such as Millennial Lithium (~$670M, 2022), Allana Potash (~$230M, 2015), and Potash One (~$590M, 2011).
• Upcoming Catalysts: The company aims to complete resource expansion drilling by Q3, followed by a resource update, ESIA, and feasibility study by year-end; potential M&A activity is also possible.

Price and Volume (1-year)

* Qualified Person: Peter J. MacLean, Ph.D., P.Geo., Director of MLP. *Millennial Potash Corp. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures are in C$, except for commodity prices, which are in US$ (FOREX rate US$:C$ = 1.37)

Banio Potash Project, Gabon 

MLP has secured a new 261 km² exploration permit next to its main area, expanding the project to 1,500 km². Management plans to start drilling in H2- 2026 to see if the current resource extends into this new permit area.

Gabon has an established mining and oil & gas sector, operated by major international companies such as Fortescue (ASX: FMG), Eramet (ENXTPA: ERA), Total (NYSE: TTE), and Shell (NYSE: SHEL), showing strong foreign investment, and infrastructure capable of supporting large projects

Location Maps

The new permit is strategically important because it includes a coastal road and access to the ocean, providing potential infrastructure routes to support project development

Source: Company/FRC

MLP plans to export its products to the U.S., Brazil, and elsewhere in Africa via the Mangali port

Ongoing construction of a deep-water port, and power plant, funded by a Gabonese government-led group, should meaningfully reduce operational risks

2025 Resource Estimate

(QP: Sebastiaan van der Klauw , EurGeol . Of ERCOSPLAN and Peter J. MacLean, Ph.D., P.Geo , Director of MLP)

Banio hosts a deposit large enough for at least 25 years of production

Resource Envelope

Source: Company

We see potential for resource expansion, since the deposit remains open in multiple directions, and the current resource covers just 5% of the project area

(QP: Peter J. MacLean, Ph.D., P.Geo , Director of MLP)

Source: Company /FRC

The 2024 PEA returned an AT-NPV10% of $1.47B, and an IRR of 33%, using $387/t gMOP; potassium chloride  (spot: $373/t); we view IRRs above 25% as attractive in mining

OPEX and CAPEX are relatively low as the deposit is amenable to solution mining, compared with conventional underground potash mining

Management’s Target Timelines

Source: Company

The company aims to finish resource expansion drilling by Q3, followed by a resource update, ESIA, and a feasibility study by year-end

Financials

Strong balance sheet

Source: FRC / Company

In-the-money options and warrants can bring in $12M

FRC Valuation

We are not making any material changes to our valuation model, aside from adjusting for a 3% appreciation in the US$

As a result, our DCF valuation fell slightly from $4.80 to $4.74/share

Source: FRC

Our valuation is highly sensitive to key inputs 

We are reiterating our BUY rating, and adjusting our fair value estimate from $4.80 to $4.74/share. We believe MLP is well- positioned to benefit from potash market tightness, strong institutional backing, and a strategically located project with robust economics. It is trading at a significant discount to NPV. Key catalysts in H2 - 2026, including resource drilling, ESIA, feasibility study completion, and potential M&A.

Risks 

We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks (not exhaustive):

• The value of the company is dependent on potash prices
• Exploration and development
• Potential for delays in permitting, construction, and/or other development milestones
• FOREX and geopolitical 
• Access to capital and potential for share dilution

We are maintaining our risk rating of 5 (Highly Speculative)