• FT and Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) are continuing their evaluation of various processing methods to potentially recover bismuth and cobalt from RIO’s Kennecott operations in Utah, and process at FT’s planned refinery in Alberta.
  • FT's immediate goals include finalizing work for a project finance decision, including metallurgical testing, permitting for the construction and operation of the NICO mine and concentrator in the NWT, and the refinery in AB, and completing an updated Feasibility Study (FS).
  • FT is trading at just 22% of NICO’s AT-NPV7% per a FS completed in 2014 (previously 10%), and 32% of our base-case AT-NPV estimate (previously 16%).
  • We maintain a positive outlook on juniors focused on EV metals. Battery/EV manufacturers/miners are actively seeking stable/long-term supply sources.
  • Upcoming catalysts include acquisition of the refinery site, updates on the collaboration with Rio Tinto, an updated FS, and positive sentiment towards EV-metal juniors.

*See important disclosures at the bottom of this report rating and risk definitions. All figures in US$ unless otherwise specified.

NICO Cobalt-Gold-Bismuth-Copper Project, the NWT

FT has secured non-dilutive funding totaling $16.2M from the U.S. Department of Defense, and the Government of Canada. Additionally, FT has secured convertible securities funding of up to $10M from an institutional investor. The company has already received an initial drawdown of $1.2M from the convertible securities facility. Proceeds were used to make a down payment towards the previously announced acquisition of a brownfield refinery site in Alberta, valued at $5.5M. FT’s plan involves converting a former steel fabrication plant into a hydrometallurgical refinery, capable of producing cobalt sulphates, gold doré, bismuth ingots, and copper.

Location Map

Location Map

Source: Company

Secures financings for up to $26M

Located 160 km northwest of Yellowknife, and 50 km north of Whati

Concentrates can be transported by truck/rail to the prospective refinery site in Alberta

The potential open-pit measures 1.35 km long x 0.45 km wide x 0.22 km deep

A 2014 FS returned an AT-NPV7% of $254M, using US$16/lb cobalt vs the current spot price of US$12/lb, and the three-year average price of US$20/lb

 

Mineral Reserves
Mineral Reserves

The largest primary cobalt deposit in North America

In addition, the deposit hosts

1.1 Moz gold NICO’s bismuth deposit accounts for 12% of global reserves; bismuth is used in alloys, pharmaceuticals, and chemicals 


Planned Alberta Refinery Site

Planned Alberta Refinery SiteSource: Company

A 77-acre land package located 30 km northeast of Edmonton, and 15 km from Sherritt’s (TSX: S) nickel-cobalt processing plant

We believe the site’s location is ideal as it is in close proximity to a rail line, and various sources of water, natural gas, power, sulphuric acid, and reagents


FT's immediate goals include finalizing work for a project finance decision, including metallurgical testing, permitting for the construction and operation of the NICO mine and concentrator in the NWT, and the refinery in AB, and completing an updated FS.

Financials

Financials

Options tableSource: FRC/Company

At the end of Q1-2024, FT had $9.5M in debentures/loans from a long-term shareholder, maturing on or before December 31, 2024

Management is actively pursuing financing solutions to either repay or refinance this debt

In-the-money options/warrants can bring in $4.32M


FRC Valuation

DCF ValuationSource: FRC

As a result of the recent financings, our DCF valuation increased from $0.31 to $0.35/share


Gold priceSource: FRC


We are reiterating our BUY rating, and revising our fair value estimate from $0.31 to $0.35/share.
Upcoming catalysts include acquisition of the refinery site, updates on the collaboration with Rio Tinto, as well as positive sentiment towards EV-metal juniors. We view the government grants as a strong vote of confidence in NICO, likely sparking interest among potential M&A/financing partners.

Risks

We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks (not exhaustive):

  • Project financing
  • Commodity prices
  • Access to capital and share dilution
  • Delays in project development
  • Development