• Following a $7M bought-deal financing in Q1, debt/capital decreased 11 pp QoQ to 45%. 
  • CAPEX increased 84% YoY to $5M, driven by heightened client demand necessitating new equipment purchases. The company is building a new facility in Fort St. John, B.C.,  for equipment storage and maintenance, as part of its expansion efforts in the province.
  • Per consensus estimates, growth in North American oil and gas CAPEX will ease to 2.2% in 2024, down from 19% in 2023, driven by slower GDP growth, and higher lending rates. We believe the company's expanded rental equipment fleet will help mitigate the sector-wide slowdown. We anticipate 13% revenue growth in 2024 (unchanged) vs 25% in 2023. 

 

Price and Volume (1-year)

 

  YTD 12M
E 63% 202%
TSX 7% 9%

*See important disclosures at the bottom of this report rating and risk definitions. All figures in US$ unless otherwise specified.

 

Enterprise vs Larger Players 

E is up 202% YoY, and is the best performing stock on our list of oilfield services companies 

Gross margins are higher than the sector average, while debt/capital is lower

In 2024, we anticipate E’s revenue will grow by 13%, outpacing sector growth by 2 pp 

 

Financials 

Gross margins improved by 5 pp YoY, and were 2 pp higher than our estimate

*Sector: Oil & Gas Machinery Rental and Leasing. Source: FRC / Company

G&A expenses were down 28% YoY, and 15% lower than our estimate, primarily due to reduced employee bonuses 

EPS was up 42% YoY, beating our estimate by 6% . CAPEX increased 84% YoY to $5M, driven by heightened client demand necessitating new equipment purchases

Following a $7M bought-deal financing in Q1, debt/capital decreased 11 pp QoQ to 45%. Can raise up to $5.93M from in-the-money options and warrants 

 

Oil & Gas Price Outlook 

Consensus price forecasts (near and long-term) are well above historic averages, implying a positive outlook for the oilfield services sector

E's revenue generally tracks changes in oil and gas prices, and sector CAPEX spending. Historically, a 1% increase in oil and gas prices, and CAPEX spending, has led to a 2.5% increase in E's revenue

 Conversely, a 1% decrease in these factors has resulted in a 1.3% decline in E’s revenue

 

FRC Projections and Valuation 

Based on consensus CAPEX spending, and oil/gas prices forecasts, we anticipate 5% organic revenue growth in 2024 (unchanged)

Source: FRC 

As Q1 margins were higher than expected, we are raising our 2024 EPS estimate by 6%. We are also raising our long-term revenue/EPS forecasts to account for CAPEX-driven growth 

 

As a result, our DCF valuation increased from $2.08 to $2.44/share. Sector valuations are up 14% since our previous report

E’s forward EV/Revenue  and EV/EBITDA are 21% higher than sector averages.  We believe E’s premium is justified, given its higher margins, lower debt/capital, and higher 2024 revenue growth estimate

We are maintaining our BUY rating, and raising our fair value estimate from $1.33 to $1.62/share. Upcoming catalyst includes revenue growth stemming from the deployment of newly acquired equipment. 

 

Risks

We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks (not exhaustive):

  • The oil/gas field services market is highly dependent on oil and gas prices
  • Operates in a competitive space
  • As the company uses leverage, a downturn in business activities can negatively impact its balance sheet

We are maintaining our risk rating of 3 (Average

 

Appendix