Silver Rally and Expansion Plans Overshadow Q3 Miss

• AGX has gained 264% YoY, outperforming the Junior Silver Miners ETF (+124%), driven by a 121% YoY rise in silver prices, which recently hit an all-time record of $64/oz.
• Leveraging strong market sentiment, the company completed a C$22M equity financing in Q3, significantly strengthening its balance sheet. It recently raised an additional C$1M from warrant exercises, and could raise another C$27M from in-the-money options/warrants.

• Q3 results missed expectations due to lower production, driven by reduced throughput and grades. Production has declined QoQ over the past three quarters. The company attributed the Q3 drop to a temporary slowdown caused by contractor-related operational issues, which have since been resolved. According to management, production ramped up in September, pointing to a stronger Q4.
• In 2026, the company plans to increase throughput from 500 tpd to ~1,000 tpd by mid-year, backed by $5M in CAPEX. We believe his could potentially boost production by 50–100%, driven by higher throughput, partially offset by lower grades.
• An updated Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), completed in September, supports two mining operations with potential production of 6 Moz/year, up from ~1 Moz.
• The company is planning a 40,000 m resource update/expansion drill campaign, the largest in its history. With multiple veins still excluded from the current resource estimate, we see significant growth potential.
• We maintain a positive outlook on silver prices, anticipating continued US$ weakness, and strong demand for safe-haven assets amidst economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Additionally, the Silver Institute projects the market will remain in a deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026.
• AGX’s forward EV/Revenue of 3.37x reflects a 42% discount to silver miners.

Price and Volume (1-year)

* QP: A. David Heyl, C.P.G., Consultant for Silver X Mining

* Silver X Mining has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions. All figures in US$ unless otherwise specified.

Project Overview

The Nueva Recuperada project includes the producing Tangana mine unit (TMU) with a 720 tpd processing plant, the advanced-stage Plata mining unit (PMU), and four exploration projects

Extensive vein fields with 200+ targets, and 500+ outcrop veins 

The 2025 PEA highlights the potential to increase annual production from ~1 Moz to 6 Moz

AGX’s expansion plan involves two milling facilities: a new 1,500 tpd mill at Tangana, and the existing Recuperada mill (15 km south of Tangana), which will be expanded from 720 tpd to 1,500 tpd

(QP: A. David Heyl, C.P.G., Consultant for Silver X Mining)

Source: Company

 Recuperada will be dedicated to processing ore from the PMU

The PEA returned an AT-NPV10% of $303M, using $33/oz silver (spot: $64/oz), and $12/oz in cash costs

( QP: A. David Heyl, C.P.G. , Consultant for Silver X Mining)

Source: Company

The PEA accounted for just 64% of resources, indicating further upside for NPV and IRR

 

Q3 Production and Key Operating Metrics

Production has declined QoQ over the past three quarters, driven by lower throughput and grades

Q3 production fell 20% QoQ to 167 Koz AgEq, 11% below our estimate

Source: FRC/Company

Cash costs rose 27% QoQ, 24% above our estimate, due to lower production

Near-term plans include:

• Advancing the PMU to production in 2026
• Update the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) to support a potential 1,500 tpd operation at Tangana
• Secure permits to build a new 1,500 tpd processing facility
• Resource expansion drilling

Q3 Financials

Revenue fell 8% QoQ on lower production despite higher metal prices, missing our estimate by 9%

EBITDA, EPS, and gross margins all slipped QoQ

Last quarter, AGX turned around its working capital, cutting the deficit from $15M to $1M through a C$22M equity financing, and has since added another C$1M from warrant exercises

Source: FRC / Company

Can raise another C$27M from in-the-money options/warrants 

Comparables Valuation

Source: FRC / S&P Capital IQ / Various

AGX’s forward EV/Revenue is 3.37x (up from 2.79x) vs the sector average of 5.76x (up from 3.95x), a 42% discount

Applying the sector average yields a comparable valuation of C$1.64/share (previously C$1.00/share)

DCF Valuation

We are lowering our near-term production forecasts while raising our near and long-term metal price forecasts

As a result, we are lowering our 2025–2026 EPS estimates while raising our longer-term (2027+) EPS forecasts

Consequently, our DCF valuation rose from C$0.86 to C$1.04/share

Source: FRC

Our valuation remains highly sensitive to metal prices

We are reiterating our BUY rating, and adjusting our fair value estimate from C$0.95 to C$ 1.34/share (the average of our DCF and comparables valuations). While Q3 production missed expectations due to temporary operational issues, these have been resolved, and ramped-up throughput, along with planned expansion to ~1,000 tpd , and a major drill campaign, point to strong production growth potential.

Risks

We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks:

• Metal prices
• Exploration and development FOREX
• Negative working capital
• The upcoming PEA might not be promising

Maintaining our risk rating of 4 (Speculative)

APPENDIX