- We believe the updated resource could support a higher production profile than assumed in the 2024 Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), further enhancing project economics. The PEA reported an After Tax-NPV10% of US$1.1B, based on a long-term gMOP price of US$387/t (spot: US$352/t). MLP is trading at 25% of the AT-NPV.
- The U.S. government has added potash to its Critical Minerals List to reduce reliance on imports from Russia and Belarus. Earlier this year, the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) committed US$3 M to the Banio project to support its development. We believe Banio is well-positioned to potentially become the first African mine supplying potash to the U.S. Another key market is Brazil, which imports 95% of its potash from Canada, Russia, and Belarus.
- Management plans a phase three drill program, followed by a resource update ahead of a feasibility study (FS) next year. With ~C$15 M in cash, and the DFC commitment, MLP is well funded to complete the FS.
- Potash prices are up 25% YoY, to US$352/t. Supply pressures persist from Russia/Belarus disruptions, U.S.-Canada trade risks, and delayed new capacity; BHP’s (ASX: BHP) Jansen project now targets a mid 2027 start with CAPEX of US$7–7.4B (vs US$5.7B previously). Although demand growth has softened due to slower GDP growth, supply pressures and tariff uncertainty continue to support pricing.
- We believe the likelihood of an M&A has increased. Management and insiders own 40% of MLP’s equity. Management has a highly successful track record in M&A. Key exits: Millennial Lithium US$490 M (2022), Allana Potash US$170 M (2015), and Potash One US$430 M (2011).
- Upcoming catalysts include drilling, resource update, FS, and potential M&A activity.
Price and Volume
*Subsequent to Q3-FY2025, MLP raised $9M through an equity financing.
*QP: Peter J. MacLean, Ph.D., P.Geo, Director of MLP
* Millennial Potash has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.
Resource Update - Banio Potash Project, Gabon
MLP has updated its resource estimate, based on results from four holes, including two drilled in 2024 and 2025.
Banio Resource Estimate
(QP: Sebastiaan van der Klauw, EurGeol. Of ERCOSPLAN and Peter J. MacLean, Ph.D., P.Geo, Director of MLP)
Source: Company/FRC
Resource Envelope
Source: Company
(QP: Peter J. MacLean, Ph.D., P.Geo, Director of MLP)
Source: Company/FRC
Management’s Target Timelines
Source: Company
Financials
Source: FRC / Company
FRC Projections and Valuation
Source: FRC
We are reiterating our BUY rating, and adjusting our fair value estimate from $2.61 to $4.80/share. We believe the exceptional 972% YoY stock gain and materially upgraded Banio resource have drawn significant attention to MLP. The project is well-positioned to benefit from U.S. government support and strategic markets like Brazil, while being fully funded to advance through a feasibility study. With management’s proven M&A track record and key upcoming catalysts, we remain positive on the company’s outlook.
Risks
We believe the company is subject to the following risks:
- The value of the company is dependent on potash prices
- Exploration and development
- Potential for delays in permitting, construction, and/or other development milestones
- FOREX and geopolitical
- Access to capital and potential for share dilution
We are maintaining our risk rating of 5 (Highly Speculative)
