Hot Streak for AI Stocks / Gold Miners Lag / Mixed Bitcoin Outlook

Updates on Financials, Technology, Energy, and Special Situations Companies Under Coverage

Tevogen Bio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:TVGN)

PR Title: Announces that the Blood Advances journal has published its phase l clinical trial results for TVGN 489
Analyst Opinion: Positive - TVGN aims to become the first biotech company offering off-the-shelf, cost-effective cell therapies for viral infections, various cancers, and neurological diseases. Last year, the company completed a phase one trial of its flagship drug candidate, yielding promising results. These findings were recently published in Blood Advances, a prestigious peer-reviewed journal of the American Society of Hematology (ASH). We believe this publication marks a significant external validation of Tevogen's scientific approach.

FRC Top Picks

The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks, including five junior resource companies. The top performer, New Age Metals, was up 14%. NAM owns an advanced-stage PGM project in Ontario, and several early-stage lithium projects in Manitoba.

Top Five Weekly Performers	WoW Returns
New Age Metals Inc. (NAM.V)	14.0%
Sirios Resources Inc. (SOI.V)	8.3%
Contango Ore Inc. (CTGO)	4.6%
Sabre Gold Mines Corp. (SGLD.TO)	4.5%
Panoro Minerals (PML.V)	3.6%

* Past performance is not indicative of future performance (as of July 2, 2024)

Source: FRC

Our top picks have outperformed the benchmark (TSXV) in five out of six time periods listed below.

Performance by Sector

Total Return	1 Week	1 mo	3 mo	6 mo	3 yr	Since launch
Mining	-1.7%	-9.4%	4.3%	7.9%	-40.4%	7.6%
Cannabis	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	-45.4%	-23.6%
Tech	0.0%	-38.0%	-20.0%	-26.0%	-31.7%	-4.5%
Special Situations (MIC)	9.6%	7.1%	3.8%	11.6%	-16.1%	-11.0%
Private Companies	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	20.5%	30.5%
Portfolio (Total)	0.5%	-7.9%	1.7%	4.7%	-20.9%	4.9%
Benchmark (Total)	0.2%	-6.3%	-0.4%	2.5%	-41.4%	-36.0%
Portfolio (Annualized)	-	-	-	-	-7.5%	0.5%
Benchmark (Annualized)	-	-	-	-	-16.3%	-4.1%

1. Since the earliest initiating date of companies in the list of Top Picks  (as of July 2, 2024) 2. Green (blue) indicates FRC's picks outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark. 3. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.  4. Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here: Top Picks List

Market Updates and Insights: Mining

Last week, global equity markets were up 0.7% on average (up 0.8% in the previous week). The S&P 500 reached a new record high last week, and is currently up 0.5% WoW, driven by softer-than-expected inflation and subdued GDP/manufacturing data. We continue to believe that the Fed will cut rates in Q4-2024.

Source: FRC / Various

Last week, metal prices were up 0.8% on average (up 0.1% in the previous week).

Gold producer valuations were down 0.2% last week (down 3.6% in the prior week); base metal producers were up 0.9% last week (down 0.6% in the prior week). On average, gold producer valuations are 21% lower (unchanged) than the past three instances when gold surpassed US$2k/oz.

		24-Jun-24		02-Jul-24
	Gold Producers	EV / R (forward)	EV / EBITDA (forward)	EV / R (forward)	EV / EBITDA (forward)
1	Barrick	2.99	6.28	2.98	6.24
2	Newmont	3.18	7.29	3.12	7.10
3	Agnico Eagle	4.38	8.20	4.34	7.97
4	AngloGold	2.14	4.83	2.22	5.12
5	Kinross Gold	2.41	5.38	2.57	5.70
6	Gold Fields	2.69	4.98	2.70	4.97
7	Sibanye	0.70	3.74	0.63	3.45
8	Hecla Mining	4.50	13.97	4.21	12.93
9	B2Gold	1.59	3.11	1.60	3.14
10	Alamos	4.67	8.94	4.63	8.83
11	Harmony	1.67	5.08	1.72	5.25
12	Eldorado Gold	2.39	4.92	2.33	4.71
	Average (excl outliers)	2.62	5.70	2.62	5.68
	Min	0.70	3.11	0.63	3.14
	Max	4.67	13.97	4.63	12.93
	Base Metal Producers	EV / R (forward)	EV / EBITDA (forward)	EV / R (forward)	EV / EBITDA (forward)
1	BHP Group	2.90	5.59	2.94	5.65
2	Rio Tinto	2.20	4.68	2.20	4.67
3	South32	1.58	7.31	1.62	7.37
4	Glencore	0.45	5.80	0.44	5.80
5	Anglo American	1.92	5.67	1.86	5.50
6	Teck Resources	2.86	6.60	2.89	6.67
7	First Quantum	3.68	11.82	3.76	12.28
	Average (excl outliers)	2.23	6.78	2.24	6.85
	Min	0.45	4.68	0.44	4.67
	Max	3.68	11.82	3.76	12.28

 Source: S&P Capital IQ & FRC

We are revising our full-year average metal price forecasts after adjusting for prices in Q2; changes are highlighted in red.

 

Market Updates and Insights: Cryptos

Prices of mainstream/popular cryptos were up 3% on average last week (down 8% in the previous week).

July 2, 2024
Cryptos	WoW	YoY
Bitcoin	1%	102%
Binance Coin	-0.5%	135%
Cardano	7%	43%
Ethereum	-1%	76%
Polkadot	10%	21%
XRP	1%	-0.4%
Polygon	-1%	-15%
Solana	10%	691%
Average	3%	132%
Min	-1%	-15%
Max	10%	691%
Indices
Canadian	WoW	YoY
BTCC	1%	96%
BTCX	2%	106%
EBIT	2%	105%
FBTC	1%	43%
U.S.	WoW	YoY
BITO	-6%	30%
BTF	1%	60%
IBLC	5%	64%

 Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance

The global MCAP of cryptos is US$2.44T, down 10% MoM, but up 95%YoY.

Total Crypto Market Cap Chart

Source: CoinGecko

Last week, BTC was up 0.7%, while the S&P 500 was up 0.5%. The U.S. 10-year treasury yield was up 0.2 pp.

Source: FRC/ Yahoo Finance

The global hash rate of BTC (defined as calculations performed per second/an indicator of network difficulty) is 559 exahashes per second (EH/s), down 8% WoW, and 6% MoM. The decrease in hash rates is positive for miners as their efficiency rates (BTC production per EH/s) are inversely linked to global hash rates. 

Total Hash Rate (BTC) 

The Realized HODL ratio (RHODL), which gauges the activity of short-term holders relative to long-term holders, was up 2% WoW, and 290% YoY. We interpret the increase in RHODL as a sign of strengthening demand, suggesting potential for an uptick in near-term prices. Historically, BTC prices have moved in tandem with this ratio. By tracking RHODL, we believe we can identify potential turning points in BTC prices.

Source: FRC/ Various

Companies operating in the crypto space are trading at an average EV/R of 6.4x (previously 5.9x).

Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC

July 2, 2024
Crypto Stocks	EV/Revenue
Argo Blockchain	1.9
BIGG Digital	5.6
Bitcoin Well	0.8
Canaan Inc.	1.3
CleanSpark Inc.	13.6
Coinbase Global	14.6
Galaxy Digital Holdings	N/A
HIVE Digital	3.3
Hut 8 Mining Corp.	8.2
Marathon Digital Holdings	12.3
Riot Platforms	7.7
SATO Technologies	1.5
Average	6.4
Median	5.6
Min	0.8
Max	14.6

  Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC

Market Updates and Insights: Artificial Intelligence/AI 

Major AI indices are up 1% WoW on average (down 1% in the previous week), and 12% YoY.

July 2, 2024
AI Indices	WoW	YoY
First Trust Nasdaq AI and Robotics ETF	1.9%	-7%
Global X Robotics & AI ETF	0.2%	6%
Global X AI & Technology ETF	1.8%	29%
iShares Robotics and AI Multisector ETF	1.3%	1%
Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF	1.2%	30%
Average	1.3%	12%
Min	0.2%	-7%
Max	1.9%	30%

Source: FRC/Various

The following table highlights some of the most popular large-cap AI stocks. Shares of these companies are up 1% WoW on average, and 117% YoY. Their average P/E is 41.7x (previously 42.5x) vs the NASDAQ-100 Index’s average of 32.1x (previously 31.9x).

July 2, 2024
AI Stocks	WoW	YoY	P/E
Arista Networks	7.5%	124%	49.6
Dell Technologies	3.5%	162%	29.2
Microsoft Corporation	2.3%	36%	39.6
NVIDIA Corp	-3.0%	189%	72.6
Micron Technology	-7.7%	107%	n/a
Palantir Technologies	5.6%	67%	n/a
Qualcomm	-0.01%	67%	26.7
Super Micro Computer (SMCI)	-0.7%	236%	45.1
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing	1.0%	66%	29.3
Average	0.9%	117%	41.7
Median	1.0%	107%	39.6
Min	-7.7%	36%	26.7
Max	7.5%	236%	72.6

Source: FRC/Various 

Key Developments:

• Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is planning to spend more than US$100B over the next decade on data centers, underscoring its commitment to providing the computing power needed for advanced AI applications.
• Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) is going global by launching an English version of its AI model hub, ModelScope, targeting a wider audience of developers and businesses worldwide.