Author: Sid Rajeev, Head Of Research

Weekly Mining Commentary

Global equity markets were down 2.5% last week. We have been anticipating a correction for some time, and had even discussed a catalyst in our report last week, titled “Weak Manufacturing Data and Slow Vaccination Rates to Delay Economic Recovery”.

Current Vs Pre COVID-19 (as of OCT 4, 2021)

Source: FRC / Various

Prices of mainstream metals were also down WoW, despite lower inventory levels. Nickel prices, which have been highly volatile this year, fell the most (7.1%). On a YoY basis, base metals are up, while precious metals are down.

Week-over-Week (Oct 4, 2021) and Year-over-Year (Oct 4, 2021)

Source: FRC / Various

LME Inventory (Oct 4, 2021)

Source: FRC/Various

SHFE Inventory (Sept 30, 2021)- WoW

Source: FRC/SHFE

Valuations of both gold and base metals producers were down 1% WoW.

Gold Producers

Source: S&P Capital IQ & FRC

Base Metal Producers

Source: S&P Capital IQ & FRC

Last week, only one country/Russia (vs two previously) out of the 15 hardest hit nations experienced WoW increases in new COVID-19 cases and deaths. Globally, 45.71% have received at least one dose, up 1.2 ppt WoW vs 2.2 ppt the same time last week. 77.07% of Canadians have received at least one dose (up 0.7 ppt vs 1.0 ppt). 71.22% of Canadians are fully vaccinated (0.9 ppt vs 1.0 ppt) vs 65.93% in the U.K. (0.3 ppt vs 0.5 ppt), and 55.15% in the U.S. (0.6 ppt vs 0.7 ppt).

We are maintaining our price forecasts.

FRC Forecast

Source: FRC

Author: Sid Rajeev, Head Of Research

Source: https://www.researchfrc.com/weekly-mining-commentary-87