Weekly Mining Commentary

Author: Sid Rajeev, Head Of Research

Global equity indices we track were down 2.4% last week amid a rebound in COVID-19 cases due to the Delta variant.

Current Vs Pre COVID-19 (as of July 19, 2021)

Source: FRC / Various

Prices of mainstream metals retreated as well. Zinc prices held ground due to inventory declines on both the LME and the SHFE (Shanghai).

Week-over-Week (July 19, 2021) and Year-over-Year (July 19, 2021)

Source: FRC / Various

LME Inventory (July 19, 2021)

Source: FRC / Various

SHFE Inventory (July 16, 2021)

Source: FRC / Various

Valuations of gold producers were down 2% WoW; base metal producers were down 7%.

Gold Producers

Source: S&P Capital IQ & FRC

Base Metal Producers

Source: S&P Capital IQ & FRC

gold producers and base metal producers

Source: S&P Capital IQ & FRC

Seven (six last week) out of the top 15 hardest hit nations (including the U.S., France, the U.K., Spain, Russia, Iran, and Indonesia) are experiencing a spike in new COVID-19 cases. In the U.S., new cases increased from 15k per day last month, to 41k last Friday (still well below the highs of over 300k earlier this year). The U.K is also experiencing a major surge – new cases were up from 3k per day at the end of May, to a high of 54k last Saturday (vs 67k earlier this year).

70.2% of Canadians have received at lease one dose vs 69.4% at the same time last week. 50% of Canadians are fully vaccinated (previously 43%) vs 53% in the U.K. (51%), and 48% in the U.S. (48%).

Share of people who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine

As mentioned in our note last week, vaccine hesitancy in North America and Europe (ranging between 20% and 30% of population depending on the country) will result in increased vaccine supply to under-served countries in Asia and South America. We believe the recent surge has increased uncertainties, and will likely push out the global economic recovery by a few weeks.

We are maintaining our price forecasts. Check out our latest report on copper here for our supply/demand/price forecasts.

FRC Forecasts

Source: FRC

Weekly Mining Commentary

Author: Sid Rajeev, Head Of Research

Source: https://www.researchfrc.com/weekly-mining-commentary-76