Not surprisingly, base metal prices continued to retreat. We had been predicting a correction in prices due to rising inventory levels. Although we expect the demand for base metals to rise with an economic recovery, we believe that prices ran up too far, too fast in the past 12 months. Valuations of gold producers were up 1% WoW, while that of base metals producers stayed relatively flat last week. We are expecting gold to outperform the other mainstream metals this year.
We continue to estimate that 50% of the U.S. population will be vaccinated by June. We note that vaccine growth rates in Israel and the U.K. have slowed after surpassing 40%. Israel attributes it to vaccine hesitancy among its citizens, and a failure to reach remote residents. The U.K. has stated that they are expecting a near-term slowdown due to a vaccine supply crunch. Sources indicate that at least 70% of the population needs to be vaccinated to potentially achieve herd immunity.
As of April 1, 2021, the Canadian big four LPs are trading at a 119% premium (up WoW from 106%) over their U.S. peers. We think the higher premium can be directly attributed to GTBIF’s news.
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