A positive development for electric vehicle battery recycling companies.
A junior gold producer under our coverage is acquiring a developer at a steeply discounted price.
A technology/marketing company under coverage beat our 2022 revenue forecast by 7%.
Robinhood (NASDAQ: HOOD) has received an investigative subpoena, regarding its crypto operations, from the U.S. SEC.
FRC Top Picks
The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks, including four junior resource companies, and one cannabis company. The top performer Chalice Brands Ltd. (OTCQB: CHALF), was up 46%. Chalice operates retail cannabis stores in Oregon. Our prior reports can be viewed here.
* Past performance is not indicative of future performance (as of March 06, 2023)
Companies on our Top Picks list were up 56% on average since we initiated coverage vs -28% for the benchmark (TSXV).
Total Return
1 Week
1 mo
3 mo
6 mo
1 yr
3 yr
Since launch
Mining
1.4%
-6.7%
-2.6%
-7.9%
-39.7%
-5.5%
31.7%
Cannabis
45.7%
-15.7%
43.9%
-63.2%
-86.9%
38.4%
-11.7%
Tech
-7.0%
-33.3%
-50.0%
-23.1%
-57.9%
105.5%
200.3%
Special Situations (MIC)
-3.6%
-8.1%
11.0%
-14.5%
-36.7%
53.3%
-18.4%
Private Companies
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
4.7%
25.3%
16.4%
Portfolio (Total)
1.3%
-7.9%
0.4%
-11.2%
-37.1%
39.0%
55.9%
Benchmark (Total)
2.2%
4.1%
9.9%
2.5%
-24.0%
24.3%
-27.9%
Portfolio (Annualized)
-
-
-
-
-37.1%
11.6%
4.9%
Benchmark (Annualized)
-
-
-
-
-24.0%
7.5%
-3.5%
1. Since the earliest initiating date of companies in the list of Top Picks (as of March 6, 2023) 2. Green (blue) indicates FRC’s picks outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark. 3. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.
Weekly Mining Commentary
Last week, global equity markets rebounded, and were up 1.7% on average (down 0.7% in the prior week). The Eurozone reported higher than expected inflation, implying that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to remain hawkish, and keep raising rates. As a result, the US$ retreated, and equity/metal prices rebounded last week. The Bank of Canada is meeting this week. We are expecting the central bank to hold its benchmark rate, implying potential weakness in the C$.
Source: FRC/Various
Metal prices rebounded, amid a weaker US$.
Valuations of gold producers were up 5% last week (down 8% in the prior week); base metal producers were up 7% (up 2% in the prior week).
27-Feb-23
06-Mar-23
Gold Producers
EV / R (forward)
EV / EBITDA (forward)
EV / R (forward)
EV / EBITDA (forward)
1
Barrick
3.20
6.78
3.31
7.04
2
Newmont
3.09
7.47
3.16
7.65
3
Polyus
3.02
n/a
3.00
n/a
4
Agnico Eagle
3.44
7.42
3.67
7.78
5
AngloGold
1.67
4.18
1.90
4.40
6
Kinross Gold
1.79
4.72
1.82
4.84
7
Gold Fields
2.07
4.33
2.17
4.47
8
Sibanye
0.72
2.27
0.69
1.92
9
Yamana
3.58
6.37
3.73
6.64
10
B2Gold
1.70
3.30
1.84
3.62
11
Alamos
4.22
8.99
4.37
9.21
12
Harmony
0.78
3.42
0.90
3.93
13
Eldorado Gold
1.79
4.31
1.94
5.12
Average (excl outliers)
2.39
5.30
2.50
5.55
Min
0.72
2.27
0.69
1.92
Max
4.22
8.99
4.37
9.21
Base Metal Producers
EV / R (forward)
EV / EBITDA (forward)
EV / R (forward)
EV / EBITDA (forward)
1
BHP Group
2.95
5.40
3.19
5.80
2
Rio Tinto
2.35
5.05
2.46
5.31
3
South32
1.51
4.51
1.66
4.92
4
Glencore
0.41
4.10
0.41
4.21
5
Anglo American
1.48
3.99
1.51
4.06
6
Teck Resources
2.22
4.75
2.46
5.02
7
First Quantum
2.85
7.00
3.18
7.78
Average (excl outliers)
1.97
4.97
2.12
5.30
Min
0.41
3.99
0.41
4.06
Max
2.95
7.00
3.19
7.78
We are maintaining our metal price forecasts.
FRC Forecasts
Current Price
2023E
Long-Term (2025+)
Gold (US$/oz)
$1,851
$1,825
$1,400
Silver (US$/oz)
$21.13
$22.00
$18.00
Copper (US$/lb)
$4.06
$3.50
$3.00
Zinc (US$/lb)
$1.40
$1.25
$1.10
Nickel (US$/lb)
$10.82
$10.00
$8.00
Source: FRC
Source: FRC
A key sector development is listed below (positive):
– Electric vehicle battery recycling company Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (NYSE: LICY/MCAP: US$1.04B) announced a US$375M loan from the U.S. Department of Energy, to build a lithium recycling facility in the U.S. We consider this a positive development for battery recycling companies. RecycLiCo Battery Materials Inc. (TSXV:AMY) is a company under our coverage, aiming to commercialize a technology to recycle cathode materials (nickel, cobalt, and manganese) in batteries.
To acquire Anacortes Mining Corp. (TSXV: XYZ/MCAP: $15M) to create a leading diversified precious metals producer
FRC Opinion
Positive – STGO is planning to acquire Anacortes Mining Corp. for $20M (paid in shares), reflecting a 36% premium to XYZ’s last closing price. STGO’s shares were up 3%, and XYZ’s shares were up 10%, on this news, implying that the market supports this transaction. XYZ has a high-grade, undeveloped gold deposit in Peru, with 2.5 Moz in indicated resources (including 0.6M in near-surface/low-CAPEX leachable resources). A Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) on the near-surface resource had returned an AT-NPV5% of US$166M. STGO’s acquisition price is just 9% of the project’s AT-NPV. We believe this deal should allow STGO to expand and diversify its portfolio for a very reasonable investment.
ELEC to acquire a 0.5% Gross Revenue Royalty (GRR) on the Kenbridge nickel project in Ontario
FRC Opinion
Positive – ELEC is acquiring a 0.5% GRR on Tartisan’s Kenbridge nickel project for $1.35M (cash + shares). A 2022 PEA on this project had returned attractive economics, with an AT-NPV5% of $109M, and a high AT-IRR of 20%, using US$10/lb nickel. We believe the project can be advanced to production in four years. Our fair value estimate of this deal is $1.44M (per our last report on TN in July 2022), implying that the proposed transaction terms are in line with our estimates. We believe this non-dilutive financing should highly benefit TN.
Extends nickel mineralization in multiple holes at its Nisk project in Quebec.
FRC Opinion
Positive – An ongoing drill program returned high nickel and copper grades over reasonably long intercepts, implying resource expansion potential. Key results included 10.25 m of 1.4% Ni/0.88% Cu, 6.85 m of 1.93% Ni/1.06% Cu, 5.2 m of 0.99% Ni/0.68% Cu, and 3.5 m of 1.23% Ni/0.73% Cu. Management is expecting to complete a maiden resource estimate by mid-year. PNPN is up 35% since we initiated coverage in December 2022.
Announces a maiden resource estimate of 718,000 gold equivalent ounces at its Zancudo project in Colombia
FRC Opinion
Positive – A promising/high-grade maiden resource estimate, with near-term production potential. We had not assigned any valuation on this property in our previous report. We will publish an update shortly.
Positive – Completed construction of a flotation plant in late 2022, to start processing sulphide materials. Management is expecting to announce commercial production shortly. In FY2024 (12 months ended June 2024), we believe the company should be able to double its production, to 20+ Koz.
Positive – Commenced a drill program at its West Tonopah lithium project, upon receipt of a permit for 12 holes. We are expecting a maiden resource estimate this year.
Announces a definitive agreement for acquisition of the Carmin graphite property in southern Quebec
FRC Opinion
Positive – LMR can acquire a 100% interest for $100k. The Carmin property, which is located next to LMR’s La Loutre property, has a small, but high-grade historic resource. We believe this acquisition should expand La Loutre’s mine life.
Reports drillling results highlighting over 17.1 g/t gold at the Melba Mine property, Ontario
FRC Opinion
Positive – A 12-hole drill program returned promising values, including multiple high-grade intercepts. 11 holes returned 1+ gpt over lengths of up to 18 m. Management intends to resume drilling shortly.
The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned are covered by FRC under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares/securities in some companies mentioned in this report. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit https://www.researchfrc.com/website/subscribe for subscription options. This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company, industry, and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. This REPORT is solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not intended as being a complete description of the company, industry, securities or developments referred to in the material. Any forecasts contained in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated, and HAVE NOT BEEN endorsed by the Management of the company which is the subject of this report. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report. The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction.
