Analysts’ Ideas Of The Week

Table of Contents:

1. Summary

2. FRC Top Picks

3. Weekly Mining Commentary

4. Updates from Resource Companies under Coverage

5. Updates from Financial, Technology, Energy, and Special Situations Companies under Coverage

6. Weekly Crypto Commentary

7. Weekly Cannabis Commentary

8. Psychedelic Industry Performance

Summary

1. Our prediction for the Fed’s meeting this week.
2. Metal prices pulled back amid a stronger US$.
3. An oilfield services company under coverage reported 49% YoY revenue growth in 2022, beating our estimate by 2%.
4. Demos conducted by an AgTech company under coverage indicated that farmers can potentially slash costs, improve yields, and reduce fertilizer consumption significantly.
5. In February 2023, recreational cannabis sales in Canada were up 13% YoY (Source: Statistics Canada).

FRC Top Picks

The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks, including four junior resource companies, and a mortgage lender. The top performer, Transition Metals Corp. (TSXV: XTM), was up 18.8%, driven by positive results of an electromagnetic survey on its nickel-copper-PGM property in Ontario. Our prior reports can be viewed here.

Companies on our Top Picks list are up 1.4% MoM on average vs -4.0% for the benchmark (TSXV).

1. Since the earliest initiating date of companies in the list of Top Picks (as of May 1, 2023)
2. Green (blue) indicates FRC’s picks outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark.
3. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.

Weekly Mining Commentary

Last week, global equity markets were up 1.0% on average (down 0.3% in the prior week). In its upcoming meeting this week, the Fed is expected to raise the benchmark rate by 0.25%. After this meeting, we believe the Fed is unlikely to deploy additional rate hikes this year, due to rising financial instability, and slowing inflation.

Source: FRC/Various

Metal prices pulled back amid a stronger US$.

Valuations of gold producers were up 4% last week (down 4% in the prior week); base metal producers were up 1% last week (down 4% in the prior week).

We are maintaining our metal price forecasts.  

Source: FRC

Updates from Resource Companies Under Coverage

FRC Opinion

Positive – Continues to return attractive lithium grades over long intervals, including 25 m of 340 mg/L. These results, which are part of a nine-hole drill program, will be used towards a maiden resource estimate.

FRC Opinion

Positive – Promising results from a 25-hole (4,404 m) drill program, including 8.25 m of 813 g/t AgEq. Drilling has shown that the project has potential for epithermal vein systems (relatively high-grade) as well as skarn-related and/or carbonate-replacement style deposits (CRD), which are relatively high-tonnage.

FRC Opinion

Positive – All 12 holes of a recently completed drill program intersected mineralization.  We are expecting a maiden resource estimate in the coming months. Neighbor American Battery Technology (OTCQX: ABML/MCAP: US$509M) recently completed a large maiden resource estimate, totaling 16 Mt lithium carbonate, grading 561 ppm lithium.

FRC Opinion

Positive – Continues to return high nickel grades over long intervals, consistent with, or better than the project’s historic resources.

FRC Opinion

Positive – Drilling returned attractive nickel and copper grades over long intervals, such as 0.97% Ni/0.45% Cu over 16.4 m, and 1.08% Ni/0.50% Cu over 13.5 m. This should positively impact a maiden nickel/copper resource estimate, expected in the coming months.

FRC Opinion

Positive – SYH can acquire the project for $2.6M, including $125K in cash, and 6M shares. Past drilling has intersected elevated uranium, and anomalous base metals. SYH plans to attract a JV partner for this project.

Financial / Technoloy / Energy / Special Situations 

FRC Opinion

Positive – 2022 revenue was up 49% YoY, beating our estimate by 2%. EPS improved YoY, from -$0.32 to -$0.13, beating our estimate of -$0.16. We will produce an update report shortly. The company generates revenue from renting equipment for lighting and wastewater management to oil and gas/mining/construction companies in North America, including large oil and gas producers such as Petronas (KLSE: PETGAS).

FRC Opinion

Positive – Demos of its SMART Seeder MINI-MAX™ units in India showed that farmers can potentially slash costs, improve yields, and reduce fertilizer consumption significantly. We believe these results should generate interest from farmers in India as well as other farming nations in Asia.

FRC Opinion

Positive – An independent study showed that OCEA’s antibodies can suppress   glioblastoma (brain) tumor growth by 60%. We consider this a major milestone, as OCEA is in the process of filing an application to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to commence human clinical trials.

FRC Opinion

Negative – One of its borrowers (Ontario based real estate developer Stateview Homes) has defaulted on a $18M loan, accounting for 2% of Atrium’s portfolio. Management has indicated they are expecting full recovery of their investment. Atrium has no other loans outstanding to Stateview or its affiliates. In the worst-case scenario, if AI loses 100% of its capital (which we believe is a highly unlikely scenario), our fair value estimate will drop by 3%, to $13.46 per share vs the current share price of $11.72. AI is down 1% on this news.

Weekly Crypto Commentary

Prices of mainstream/popular cryptos were flat on average last week (down 10% in the previous week).

Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance

The global MCAP of cryptos is US$1.2T, up 1.7% MoM, but down 31% YoY.

Source: Coinmarketcap

Companies operating in the crypto space are trading at an average EV/R of 5.7x (previously 5.4x).

EV/R of Crypto Companies

Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC

Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC

Key sector developments are listed below (mixed):

 – Binance has backed out of a previously announced US$1.3B deal to acquire bankrupt Voyager Digital, citing the hostile and uncertain regulatory environment in the U.S. 

 – In April 2023, crypto scams totaled US$103M globally, down slightly from the monthly average of US$108M in Q1-2023 (Source: Crypto security and auditing firm CertiK)

Weekly Cannabis Commentary

Cannabis Industry Performance

Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance

Last week, U.S cannabis stocks outperformed their Canadian peers (8% vs  -1%). U.S stocks had underperformed in the week prior to last.

 Key sector developments are listed below (positive):

– In February 2023, recreational cannabis sales in Canada were $366M, up 13% YoY (Source: Statistics Canada).

– Per a new report by the Marijuana Policy Project (MPP), legalized states in the U.S. collected US$15B in marijuana tax revenue from 2014 to 2022. We believe this data supports federal legalization. 

Valuation

Canadian cannabis stocks are trading at a 4% discount (previously 2% premium) relative to their U.S. peers.

Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

                                                                                       Average EV/R

Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

Canadian Retail Cannabis Stores

Currently, there are 3,490 retail cannabis stores in Canada, an increase of two stores WoW (both in Alberta).

                                                                                     Nationwide Store Count

Source: Provincial Websites, FRC

Source: Provincial Websites, FRC

Psychedelic Industry Performance

Psychedelic Industry Performance

Psychedelic stocks were down 5% on average last week (down 8% in the previous week).

Source: TMX Money, FRC

Disclaimers and Disclosure

The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned are covered by FRC under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares/securities in some companies mentioned in this report. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit https://www.researchfrc.com/website/subscribe for subscription options. This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company, industry, and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. This REPORT is solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not intended as being a complete description of the company, industry, securities or developments referred to in the material. Any forecasts contained in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated, and HAVE NOT BEEN endorsed by the Management of the company which is the subject of this report. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report. The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction.