Analysts’ Ideas Of The Week


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    1. The US$ and equities tumbled last week amid increased financial instability.
    2. Gold/silver/crypto prices continued to rally.
    3. Our prediction for the Fed’s next move.
    4. A gold company under coverage has obtained financing from ING (NYSE: ING) and Macquarie (ASX: MQG).
    5. An oilfield services company under coverage beat our 2022 EPS estimate by 67%.

FRC Top Picks

The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks, including four junior resource companies, and one oilfield services company. The top performer Golden Minerals (TSX: AUMN), was up 22%. AUMN announced a maiden resource estimate for one of its projects last week. Our prior reports can be viewed here.

Top 5   Weekly PerformersWoW Returns
Golden Minerals Company (AUMN.TO)22.2%
Sirios Resources Inc. (SOI.V)16.7%
Enterprise Group, Inc. (E.TO)7.9%
Hot Chili Limited (HHLKF)6.3%
World Copper Ltd. (WCU.V)6.1%
* Past performance is not indicative of future performance (as of March 20, 2023)

Companies on our Top Picks list are up 12% on average since we initiated coverage vs -32% for the benchmark (TSXV).

AIW Top Picks
Total   Return1 Week1 mo3 mo6 mo1 yr3 yrSince launch
Special Situations (MIC)-15.8%-21.4%-11.6%-21.4%-41.4%74.6%-21.3%
Private CompaniesN/AN/AN/AN/A4.7%25.3%16.4%
Portfolio (Total)-5.0%-9.4%-5.7%-13.2%-37.4%72.1%12.4%
Benchmark (Total)-0.1%-2.9%8.0%-1.0%-29.7%63.0%-31.5%
Portfolio (Annualized)-----37.4%19.8%1.3%
Benchmark (Annualized) -----29.7%17.7%-4.0%

1. Since the earliest initiating date of companies in the list of Top Picks (as of March 20, 2023)
2. Green (blue) indicates FRC’s picks outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark.
3. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.

Weekly Mining Commentary

Last week, global equity markets were down 1.0% on average (down 3.4% in the prior week), amid increased financial instability. The US$ retreated as well, but gold/silver/crypto prices continued to rally, driven by increased expectations of the Fed slowing or pausing rate hikes. The market is expecting a 0.25% hike in the upcoming meeting this week. Although the European Central Bank (ECB)  raised its rate by 0.5% last week, due to increased uncertainties and turmoil in the financial industry, we believe the Fed is likely to turn more cautious, and maintain its benchmark rate. Therefore, we are expecting equities/gold prices to rally in the second half of this week.

current vs pre covid mining chart

Source: FRC/Various

Last Friday, gold prices surpassed US$2,000/oz, and is currently trading near all-time highs. In Q4-2022, we had predicated gold prices could surpass US$2,000/oz this year.

wow chart
yoy chart
lme chart
shfe chart

Valuations of gold producers were up 9% last week (down 1% in the prior week); base metal producers were down 5% (down 7% in the prior week).

gold producer chart
base metal producer chart
 Gold ProducersEV / R   (forward)EV / EBITDA (forward)EV / R (forward)EV / EBITDA (forward)
3Polyus 2.97n/an/an/a
4Agnico Eagle3.507.423.908.27
5AngloGold 2.094.852.215.46
6Kinross Gold 1.734.621.945.16
7Gold Fields2.445.022.705.47
13Eldorado Gold1.824.761.965.18
 Average (excl outliers)2.475.512.676.04
 Base Metal ProducersEV / R   (forward)EV / EBITDA (forward)EV / R (forward)EV / EBITDA (forward)
1BHP Group 3.005.492.865.22
2Rio Tinto2.334.992.224.77
5Anglo American1.483.961.373.67
6Teck Resources2.224.562.064.35
7First Quantum2.867.022.796.84
 Average (excl outliers)1.974.931.874.69

We are maintaining our metal price forecasts.  

FRC Forecasts
Current Price2023E Long-Term (2025+)
Gold (US$/oz)$1,972$1,825$1,400
Silver (US$/oz)$22.46$22.00$18.00
Copper (US$/lb)$3.91$3.50$3.00
Zinc (US$/lb)$1.33$1.25$1.10
Nickel (US$/lb)$10.53$10.00$8.00
Source: FRC

Source: FRC

Key sector developments are listed below (positive):

 – Volkswagen (DAX: VOW3) is planning to build a two million sqft Electric Vehicle (EV) battery facility in Ontario. We consider this a highly positive development for EV-metals companies in North America.

 – The European Union has added copper, nickel, and manganese to its list of critical materials.

Updates from Resource Companies Under Coverage

Contango Ore Inc./ NYSEAM: CTGO

PR Title

Enters into a project financing agreement with ING and Macquarie

FRC Opinion

Positive – ING and Macquarie are offering a US$70M loan to fund CTGO’s portion of CAPEX to advance the Manh Choh gold project in Alaska to production. CTGO’s JV partner Kinross (TSX: K) owns 70%, and is the project’s operator. Initial gold production is expected in H2-2024.

Tudor Gold Corp./ TSXV: TUD

PR Title

Completed an updated resource estimate for the e Treaty Creek project, B.C.

FRC Opinion

Positive – Resources increased 12% to 31 Moz AuEq (gold+silver+copper); grades increased 45% to 1.09 gpt. Treaty Creek is one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in the world. Management is planning to continue resource-expansion exploration programs, prior to initiating a PEA.  

Azure Minerals Limited / ASX: AZS

PR Title

Spodumene-rich pegmatite (lithium) drilled at Andover

FRC Opinion

Positive – Promising results; two drill holes intersected spodumene-bearing pegmatites over wide intervals (22 m & 27 m), confirming that lithium mineralization identified on surface extends to depth. Note that Azure recently completed a  maiden nickel/copper/cobalt resource on the project.

Starcore International Mines Ltd. / TSX: SAM

PR Title

Reported Q3-2022 (ended January 2023) results

FRC Opinion

Negative – Revenue was up 14% YoY, but 4% below our forecast, due to lower than expected production, amid lower grades. Gross margins and EPS were also below expectations. We will publish an update shortly.   

Zimtu Capital Corp. / TSXV: ZC

PR Title

Announced a $1.5M private placement

FRC Opinion

Positive – Proceeds will be used to fund exploration and working capital.

Golden Minerals Company/ NYSE / TSX

PR Title

Completed a maiden resource estimate for its Yoquivo silver-gold project located in Chihuahua state, Mexico

FRC Opinion

Positive – A promising high-grade inferred resource estimate totalling 17 Moz AgEq, grading 570 gpt. We will publish an update shortly, incorporating a fair value estimate on Yoquivo. We had not assigned any value for this project previously.

Panoro Minerals Ltd./ TSXV: PML 

PR Title

Intersects 117.7 m grading 1.98% CuEq at the Cotabambas project, Peru

FRC Opinion

Positive – Multiple high-grade intercepts over long intervals, suggesting potential for resource expansion. Management is focused on completing a PFS this year.

Financial / Technoloy / Energy / Special Situations 

Enterprise Group Inc./ TSX: E

PR Title

Reported 2022 results

FRC Opinion

Positive – Revenue was up 44% YoY, beating our estimate by 2%. Gross profit was up 64% YoY, beating our estimate by 9%. EPS turned positive (from -$0.05 to $0.05), beating our estimate by 67%.  Revenue growth came from organic growth as well as its recently launched natural gas-powered mobile power systems, replacing diesel generators.

Siyata Mobile Inc./NASDAQ: SYTA

PR Title

Announces certification and approval of SD7 by Telstra (ASX: TLS)

FRC Opinion

Positive – Major milestone; Telstra, Australia’s largest carrier, will start offering SYTA’s flagship device (SD7) to its customers. SD7 is also marketed by other large carriers such as AT&T (NYSE: T), Verizon (NYSE: VZ), T-Mobile (NASDAQ: TMUS), FirstNet, US Cellular (NYSE: USM), and Bell (TSE: BCE).

AppTech Payments Corp./ NASDAQ: APCX

PR Title

Reported 2022 results

FRC Opinion

Neutral – Revenue was up 27% YoY, to US$450k vs our estimate of US$454k, due to higher transaction volume. Gross profit was up 13% YoY, to $230k vs our estimate of US$228k. However, due to higher R&D expenses, net losses increased 57% YoY, to US$16M (EPS: -US$0.96) vs our estimate of US$13M (EPS: -US$0.77). We are expecting revenue to grow 76% this year, driven by its brand new platform (Commerse™) offering digital payment processing solutions, and banking capabilities to merchants / businesses / retailers.

Weekly Crypto Commentary

Prices of mainstream/popular cryptos were up 5% on average last week (up 5% in the previous week as well).

March 20, 2023
Binance Coin37%9%-14%

Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance

The global MCAP of cryptos is US$1.15T, up 3% MoM, but down 37% YoY.

total crypto market cap

Source: Coinmarketcap

Companies operating in the crypto space are trading at an average EV/R of 5.3x (previously 3.5x).

EV/R of Crypto Companies

ev r crypto

Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC

March 20, 2023
Crypto CompaniesTickerTEV/Revenue
Banxa HoldingsTSXV: BNXA0.6
BIGG DigitalCSE: BIGG8.4
Canaan Inc. NASDAQ: CAN0.7
Coinbase GlobalNASDAQ: COIN5.3
Galaxy Digital HoldingsTSX: GLXYN/A
Hive Blockchain TechnologiesTSXV:HIVE2.0
Marathon Digital HoldingsNASDAQ: MARA17.4
Hut 8 Mining Corp. TSX: HUT3.9
Riot BlockchainNASDAQ: RIOT4.4

Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC

Key sector developments are listed below (negative):

 – Last week, former Belgian finance minister and a member of the European Parliament called for a ban on cryptos, stating that cryptos have “no economic or social value.”

 – Global crypto exchange OKX is winding down its operations in Canada, due to increased regulations.  Last month,  the Canadian Securities Administrators (CSA) had announced new regulations for crypto trading platforms.

 – According to the FBI, online scams relating to cryptos increased 183% YoY, from US$0.9B in 2021, to US$2.6B in 2022.

Weekly Cannabis Commentary


Cannabis Industry Performance

March 20, 2023
U.S. CompaniesYTD1-Week1-Year
Cresco Labs Inc. -11%-11%-75%
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. -23%-7%-50%
Green Thumb Industries Inc.-7%1%-56%
Trulieve Cannabis Corp.-20%0%-69%
Canadian CompaniesYTD1-Week1-Year
Aurora Cannabis Inc.-27%-11%-79%
Canopy Growth Corp.-19%-8%-71%
Cronos Group Inc.-25%-6%-43%
HEXO Corp.19%-15%-84%
Organigram Holdings Inc.-25%-9%-55%
Tilray Inc.-8%0%-50%
Canadian Average-14%-8%-64%
U.S. Average-15%-4%-63%

Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance

Last week, Canadian cannabis stocks underperformed their U.S. peers (-8% vs

-4%). Canadian stocks had underperformed in the week prior to last as well.

Key sector developments are listed below (positive):

– The Kentucky senate has approved a bill to legalize medical marijuana. Currently, medical marijuana is legal in 38 states in the U.S.

– In Arkansas, medical marijuana sales were up 10% YoY in the first two months of this year, to US$46M (Source: MJBiz).

– Canadian producer  Heritage Cannabis Holdings Corp. (CSE: CANN/MCAP: $25M) has been approved to import medical CBD products into Brazil.


Canadian cannabis stocks are trading in line (previously trading at a 3% discount) with their U.S. peers.

March 13, 2023March 20, 2023
Canadian   CompaniesTEV/RevenueTEV/EBITDATEV/RevenueTEV/EBITDA
Aurora Cannabis Inc.TSX: ACB1.6NM1.6NM
Canopy Growth Corp.TSX: WEED4.4NM4.3NM
Cronos Group Inc.TSX: CRON0.0NM0.0NM
Organigram Holdings Inc.TSX: OGI1.
Tilray Inc.NASDAQ: TLRY2.8NM3.0NM
U.S. CompaniesTickerTEV/RevenueTEV/EBITDATEV/RevenueTEV/EBITDA
Cresco Labs Inc. OTC: CRLBF1.35.71.310.2
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. OTC: CURLF2.712.32.511.7
Green Thumb Industries Inc.OTC: GTBIF2.
Trulieve Cannabis Corp.OTC TCNNF1.
Implied   Premium (Canada vs U.S.) (Average)-3%0%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

                                                                                       Average EV/R

average ev r

Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

Canadian Retail Cannabis Stores

Currently, there are 3,500 retail cannabis stores in Canada, an increase of sixteen stores WoW, including fourteen new stores in ON, and two in B.C.

                                                                                     Nationwide Store Count

nationwide store count

Source: Provincial Websites, FRC

Geographic RegionStore CountStore CountStore CountStore CountPopulationPopulation / Store
Alberta 753 756 757 757 4,428,247 5,850
B.C. 422 425 482 484 5,120,184    10,579
Manitoba 141 141 167 167 1,379,121 8,258
N.B. 20 20 25 25 780,890    31,236
N.S. 36 36 46 46 978,274    21,267
Newfoundland 37 37 39 39 520,437    13,345
Northwest Territories 7 7 6 6 44,982 7,497
Nunavut 39,486
Ontario 1,470 1,497 1,702 1,716 14,745,040 8,593
P.E.I. 4 4 4 4 158,717    39,679
Quebec 84 84 89 89 8,552,362    96,094
Saskatchewan 128 128 161 161 1,181,987 7,342
Yukon 7 7 6 6 41,293 6,882
CANADA 3,109 3,142 3,484 3,500 37,971,020    10,849

Source: Provincial Websites, FRC

Psychedelic Industry Performance

Psychedelic Industry Performance

Psychedelic stocks were down 7% on average last week (down 19% in the previous week).

Key sector developments are listed below (positive):

 – Lawmakers in Nevada have introduced a bill to legalize psilocybin.

 – Lawmakers in Minnesota have introduced a bill to establish a task force to evaluate legalization of psychedelics. 

March 20, 2023
Atai Life Sciences N.V.-56%-6%-78%
COMPASS Pathways plc1%0%-41%
Cybin Inc.-11%-11%-55%
Delic Holdings Corp.-84%-14%-92%
GH Research-27%-18%-58%
Mind Medicine Inc.-3%-5%-83%
Numinus Wellness Inc.-14%-8%-63%
Seelos Therapeutics Inc.-1%5%-25%

Source: TMX Money, FRC


Disclaimers and Disclosure

The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned are covered by FRC under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares/securities in some companies mentioned in this report. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit for subscription options. This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company, industry, and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. This REPORT is solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not intended as being a complete description of the company, industry, securities or developments referred to in the material. Any forecasts contained in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated, and HAVE NOT BEEN endorsed by the Management of the company which is the subject of this report. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report. The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction.

Companies Mentioned:

Golden Minerals Company (AUMN.TO), Sirios Resources Inc. (SOI.V), Enterprise Group, Inc. (E.TO), Hot Chili Limited (HHLKF), World Copper Ltd. (WCU.V), Contango Ore Inc.NYSEAM: CTGO, Tudor Gold Corp./ TSXV: TUD, Azure Minerals Limited / ASX: AZS, Starcore International Mines Ltd. / TSX: SAM, Zimtu Capital Corp. / TSXV: ZC, Golden Minerals Company/ NYSE / TSX, Panoro Minerals Ltd./ TSXV: PML , Enterprise Group Inc./ TSX: E, Siyata Mobile Inc./NASDAQ: SYTA, AppTech Payments Corp./ NASDAQ: APCX.