Panoro Minerals Ltd.

Upgrades & Expands One of the Largest Undeveloped Copper-Gold Deposits

Published: 2/9/2024

Author: Sid Rajeev, B.Tech, CFA, MBA

Thumbnail of the report Upgrades & Expands One of the Largest Undeveloped Copper-Gold Deposits
*Panoro Minerals Ltd. has paid FRC a fee for research coverage and distribution of reports. See last page for other important disclosures, rating, and risk definitions.

Sector: Basic Materials | Industry: Other Industrial Metals & Mining

Rating and Key Data
MetricsValue
Current PriceUS $0.11
Fair ValueUS $0.67
Risk5
52 Week RangeUS $0.09-0.15
Shares O/S (M)264
Market Cap. (M)US $29
Current Yield (%)n/a
P/E (forward)n/a
P/B0.8

Report Highlights

Highlights

PML has completed an updated resource estimate for its flagship Cotabambas project in Peru, which is one of the largest copper-gold deposits held by a junior in the Americas. 

Resources increased by 31% to 6.7 Blbs of copper, 6 Moz gold, 80 Moz silver, and 54 Mlbs molybdenum. 55% of resources are in the indicated category vs just 21% for the previous estimate, implying increased confidence.

Waste: Ore decreased from 2:1 to 0.65:1, implying potential for lower OPEX.

The new resource estimate includes a high-grade starter pit. Earlymining of higher-grade materials could boost production and reduce OPEX in the initial years of operations. This approach also involves lower initial CAPEX, as PML can develop the deposit in stages.

We believe there is potential for resource expansion as the deposit remains open in multiple directions, and at depth.

Management intends to complete an updated Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) by Q3-2024. The previous PEA (completed in 2015) had returned an AT-NPV7.5% of $1B, using $1,400/oz gold and $3.25/lb copper.

Upcoming catalysts include an updated PEA, and a potential rally in metal prices when the Fed starts slashing rates, possibly in June 2024.


Financials

Panoroโ€™s flagship Cotabambas project hosts a large tonnage/low-grade porphyry copper-gold-silver deposit. Located near majors


Updated Resource Estimate

 

Category

CuEq resources increased by 31% to 9.9 Blbs, driven by lower cut-off grades, and higher metal prices

The average CuEq grade decreased 4% to 0.45%, driven by the inclusion of lower-grade materials

We believe the positive impact of higher tonnage far outweighs the negative impact of lower grades

55% of resources are in the indicated category vs 21% for the previous estimate, implying increased confidence


Resource Pit

Resources are spread across two deposits: the North pit (0.70 km x 0.25 km x 0.80 km), and the South pit (0.40 km x 0.15 km x 0.60 km)

We believe there is potential for resource expansion as the deposit remains open in multiple directions, and at depth

 

Resource Explansion

Several targets remain untested


The South pit hosts a higher-grade component (129 Mt at 0.91% CuEq) in the indicated category, mostly located outside the open-pit model used in a PEA completed in 2015. By mining these materials early, PML can potentially increase production, and lower OPEX in the initial years of operations. This approach also involves lower initial CAPEX, as PML can develop the deposit in stages.

The new resource estimate includes a high-grade starter pit

 

South Pit

Waste:ore decreased from 2:1 to 0.65:1, implying potential for lower OPEX

The 2015 PEA had returned an AT- NPV7.5% of US$1B, using US$1,400/oz gold, and US$3.25/lb copper


2015 PEA

Management intends to complete an updated PEA by Q3-2024 

We are anticipating material increases in OPEX/CAPEX due to inflation, a longer mine life, and higher production/cash flow forecasts in the initial years of operation

 

Price table

Management is also planning various mine optimization, and metallurgical studies, to potentially improve economics

PML needs $40M to advance the project to a feasibility study


Management Timeline

Financials

Financials

Under a $140M project financing with PML, Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM) has contributed $14M so far, with the remaining US$126M to be paid in stages during construction

At the end of Q3- 2023, PML had $2.5M in working capital; the company is anticipating staged payments totaling $9.7M in 2024/2025 from the sale of a non-core asset

Options table

PML is the most undervalued junior among our list of copper juniors


Valuation and Rating

PML is trading at just C$0.002/lb (previously C$0.006) vs the sector average of C$0.011 (C$0.026)

 

Discount rate table

Price Table

Our fair value estimate declined from C$0.74 to C$0.67/share due to lower sector EV/lb multiples, partially offset by the recenet increase in resources


We are reiterating our BUY rating, and adjusting our fair value estimate from C$0.74 to C$0.67 per share. We believe PML is an attractive M&A target, given that it hosts one of the largest copper-gold deposits held by a junior in the Americas. Upcoming catalysts include an updated PEA, and a potential rally in metal prices when the Fed starts slashing rates, possibly in June 2024.

 

Risks

  • We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks (not exhaustive):
  • Large projects involve high CAPEX
  • As porphyry projects are of relatively low-grade, they are highly sensitive to
  • commodity prices
  • WPM has an option to terminate the financing agreement
  • Development, EIA, and permitting