Production and Earnings Exceed Expectations

Metrics	Value
Current Price	CAD $0.48
Fair Value	CAD $0.84
Risk	4
52 Week Range	CAD $0.13-0.51
Shares O/S (M)	328
Market Cap. (M)	CAD $158
Current Yield (%)	N/A
P/E (forward)	4.2
P/B	0.87

Report Highlights

MMY is up 50% since our previous report in March 2025, and 246% YoY, significantly outperforming gold (up 47%), and the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (up 54%). However, it remains deeply undervalued at 1.6x forward EBITDA, versus the sector average of 5.8x, a 73% discount.
In Q3-FY2025 (ended March), MMY produced 9.5 Koz from its 100% owned Selinsing gold mine in Malaysia, up 74% YoY, and 11% QoQ, beating our estimate by 6%. This marks the second-highest quarterly production since sulphide production began in late 2022, trailing only Q4-FY2024.
Driven by higher production, cash costs declined 5% QoQ to $876/oz, closely matching our estimate of $880/oz. Gross profit increased 18% QoQ to $2,071/oz. EBITDA and EPS beat our estimates by 7% and 5%, respectively.

As of March 2025, MMY had $39M in working capital (up 22% QoQ), with no debt.
The company is planning a resource upgrade drill program this year aimed at potentially converting inferred to M&I resources. MMY has not engaged in exploration at its Murchison gold project in Australia lately, but management intends to start with historical resource confirmation drilling, and regional geological analysis.
With gold trading near record highs, we anticipate an increase in M&A activity over the next 12 months. We maintain a positive outlook on gold prices, anticipating continued US$ weakness, strong demand for safe-haven assets amidst economic and geopolitical uncertainties, and the potential for a global slowdown in GDP.
We are raising our near-term EPS estimates due to higher gold prices, and stronger-than-expected Q3 production.

Key Financial Data (YE - June 30) US$M, except EPS	2024.00	2025E	2026E
Gold Sales (oz)	30713.00	36854.00	38,122
Revenue	51.42	84.31	88
Net Income (adjusted)	$6.44	$27.71	$27.37
EPS	0.02	0.08	0
Working Capital	20.56	44.87	72
Debt/Capital	0%	0%	0%

Price Performance (1-year)

	YTD	12M
MMY	67%	246%
TSXV	14%	16%
Gold	28%	47%
GDXJ	54%	54%

Portfolio Summary

Owns a producing gold mine in Malaysia, and exploration projects in Western Australia. Total compliant resources of over 1.2 Moz Au

MMY has been processing sulphide materials since December 2022, with cumulative production exceeding 64 Koz by March 2025

Q3 production was up 74% YoY, and 11% QoQ, beating our estimate by 6%, driven by higher throughput and recoveries. While grade volatility is normal for miners, recoveries improved due to plant enhancements, and optimization

FY2025 (9M) production rose 34% YoY, due to higher grades, throughput, and recoveries. Driven by higher production, Q3 cash costs were down 1% YoY, and 5% QoQ, to $876/oz, closely aligning with our estimate of $880/oz

Gross profit was up 70% YoY, and 18% QoQ, to $2,071/oz. With over 700 Koz of sulfide resources remaining, we believe the mine could produce for 14 more years

Financials (Year-End: June 30th)

While Q3 production rose significantly, gold sales fell 7% QoQ due to sales cycle timing; however, this impact was offset by higher gold prices. As a result, revenue remained flat, while EBITDA increased 7% due to lower cash costs

Revenue beat our estimate by 3%, while EBITDA beat by 7%. EPS declined due to FOREX losses from a weaker US$, yet exceeded our estimate by 5%

Gross and EBITDA margins improved both QoQ and YoY, driven by lower cash costs. FY2025 (9M) revenue rose 80% YoY, while EBITDA surged 160%

Strong balance sheet, with $39M in working capital, and no debt

FRC Projections and Valuation

We are raising our EPS estimates due to higher gold prices, and stronger-than-expected Q3 production. Sector multiples are up 39% since our previous report in March 2025

MMY is trading at a 69% discount (previously 73%) to comparable junior gold miners. Applying sector multiples, we arrived at a fair value estimate of C$0.69/share (previously C$0.53/share) on the Selinsing mine

Valuation increased due to our higher revenue and EBITDA forecasts, and sector multiples

Our DCF valuation on Selinsing is C$0.58/share (previously C$0.46/share), driven by higher near-term EBITDA forecasts

Using a sum-of-parts valuation, we arrived at a fair value estimate of C$0.84/share (previously C$0.68/share)

We are reiterating our BUY rating, and raising our fair value estimate from C$0.68 to C$0.84/share. The company continues to deliver strong operational results, with record production, and declining costs. Despite a 246% YoY share price gain, MMY remains significantly undervalued relative to peers, with no debt.

Risks

We believe the company is exposed to the following key risks: