Timbercreek Financial Corp.
A Narrow Window to Lock in an 11%+ Yield
Published: 11/16/2023
Author: Sid Rajeev, B.Tech, CFA, MBA
Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Mortgage Finance
Ticker Symbols:TF.TO - TSX 🔹TBCRF - NASDAQ 🔹
Rating and Key Data
| Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| Current Price | US $6.56 |
| Fair Value | US $9.67 |
| Risk | 3 |
| 52 Week Range | US $5.74-8.35 |
| Shares O/S (M) | 83 |
| Market Cap. (M) | US $547 |
| Current Yield (%) | 11 |
| P/E (forward) | 7.8x |
| P/B | 0.8x |
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Report Highlights
Highlights
In Q3-2023, TF reported record EPS (up 22% YoY), in line with our estimate.
EPS growth was driven by higher lending rates (8.5% in Q3-2022, to 9.9% in Q3-2023). With inflation subsiding, financial instability on the rise, mortgage costs increasing, unemployment climbing, and consumer confidence declining, we anticipate that the Bank of Canada will initiate rate cuts within the next six months.
Mortgages outstanding (net) were down 4% QoQ to $1.07B, amid dampened real estate activity. We anticipate transaction volumes will pick
