Report Highlights

  • In 2024, mortgage receivables (gross) decreased 1.5% to $863M vs our estimate of $850M.  As 84% of AI’s portfolio are floating-rate mortgages, its average lending rate has declined with the Bank of Canada’s cuts.
  • Revenue was down 1.3% YoY, missing our estimate by just 0.1%.  While EPS fell 10% YoY, it was still 1.4% higher than our forecast, driven by lower-than-expected loan loss provisions.
  • Dividends decreased from $1.19 to $1.06/share vs our forecast of $1.04/share. Annual regular dividends were increased from $0.90 to $0.93/ share, effective December 2024.
  • Per management's guidance in the Q3 earnings call, stage three (impaired) mortgages declined significantly in Q4.
  • Due to sluggish sector activity, particularly in development and construction projects, the company has been increasing its exposure to lower-risk property types, such as single-family residential and income-producing commercial properties, which should reduce portfolio risk, and yields.