Atrium Mortgage Investment Corporation
2024 EPS Beat: A Cautious Outlook Amid Tariff Threats
Published: 3/10/2025
Author: FRC Analysts

Sector: Financial Services | Industry: Mortgage Finance
Ticker Symbols:AI.TO - TSX 🔹AMIVF - NASDAQ 🔹
Rating and Key Data
Metrics | Value |
---|---|
Current Price | CAD $10.78 |
Fair Value | CAD $12.78 |
Risk | 3 |
52 Week Range | CAD $10.31-12.00 |
Shares O/S (M) | 47 |
Market Cap. (M) | CAD $509 |
Current Yield (%) | 9.5 |
P/E (forward) | 10.4 |
P/B | 1.0 |
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Report Highlights
- In 2024, mortgage receivables (gross) decreased 1.5% to $863M vs our estimate of $850M. As 84% of AI’s portfolio are floating-rate mortgages, its average lending rate has declined with the Bank of Canada’s cuts.
- Revenue was down 1.3% YoY, missing our estimate by just 0.1%. While EPS fell 10% YoY, it was still 1.4% higher than our forecast, driven by lower-than-expected loan loss provisions.
- Dividends decreased from $1.19 to $1.06/share vs our forecast of $1.04/share. Annual regular dividends were increased from $0.90 to $0.93/ share, effective December 2024.
- Per management's guidance in the Q3 earnings call, stage three (impaired) mortgages declined significantly in Q4.
- Due to sluggish sector activity, particularly in development and construction projects, the company has been increasing its exposure to lower-risk property types, such as single-family residential and income-producing commercial properties, which should reduce portfolio risk, and yields.
- Since June 2024, the BoC has cut rates six times (200 bp), with the potential for one or two more cuts this year, due to slowing GDP growth, high unemployment, and cooling inflation. Conseque