Analysts' Ideas of the Week
Mining Industry M&A: Anglo American, Equinox Gold, and BHP Lead Activity
ByFRC Analysts
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Highlights
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The mining industry has seen a surge in activity, with three major announcements in recent days from Anglo American, Codelco, Equinox Gold, Calibre Mining, and BHP. These moves highlight a strategic shift toward mergers and acquisitions (M&A), driven by record commodity prices and the global push for green energy.
1. Anglo American and Codelco Strike $5B Copper Deal
On February 20, 2025, Anglo American and Chile’s state-owned Codelco announced a joint development agreement for their neighboring Los Bronces and Andina copper operations in Chile. Los Bronces is a key asset for Anglo American, while Andina is one of Codelco’s smaller operations. The partnership is expected to produce 2.7 million tons of copper over 21 years, beginning in 2030. This collaboration aims to maximize output and value, driven by rising demand for copper in renewable energy and electric vehicle technologies. Codelco’s recent moves to recover from a production slump and rising debt—including acquiring a 10% stake in Teck’s Quebrada Blanca copper mine—suggest that this partnership is part of a broader strategy to leverage private-sector collaborations.
2. Equinox Gold to Buy Calibre for $1.8B
On February 24, 2025, Canada’s Equinox Gold announced it would acquire all outstanding shares of Calibre Mining in an all-stock deal. The combined company will operate 11 assets and is projected to produce over 1.2 Moz of gold annually. The deal reflects a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 10x, significantly lower than the gold producers’ sector average of approximately 16x. With no premium offered and the lower-than-average P/E, we anticipate competing bids from other gold producers.
3. BHP Seeks Copper Deals
BHP Group, the world’s second-largest copper supplier, announced it is actively pursuing copper deals. Following its US$9.6B acquisition of OZ Minerals in 2023, which strengthened its copper portfolio with assets like the Carapateena mine near Olympic Dam, BHP is focusing on acquisitions to secure future supply. With rising copper demand from electric vehicles, solar panels, and data centers, BHP’s strategy reflects a broader industry trend: acquiring established assets with proven reserves as aging mines face declining production.
Final Takeaways
These developments reinforce our prediction that 2025 will be a year of significant M&A activity in the mining sector. With gold nearing US$3,000/oz and silver/copper at multi-year highs, companies are focusing on acquisitions to expand and diversify their portfolios rather than investing in early-stage projects. This approach accelerates growth by securing assets with proven production capabilities, especially as demand for critical minerals surges due to green energy applications. For investors, the trend toward consolidation signals potential impacts on stock performance for both acquirers and targets. Check out our list of top picks for our favorite junior resource stocks.
