Analysts’ Ideas Of The Week


All eyes on USA Inflation Data


  1. Global equity markets were relatively flat last week. All eyes are on the U.S. CPI (inflation) report, due later this week.
  2. Another M&A in the junior gold space
  3. Negative news for copper prices
  4. A crypto company under coverage beat our 2022 revenue estimate by 19%.
  5. Shares of a gold junior under coverage, backed by Ross Beaty, were up 24% last week.

FRC Top Picks

The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks, including five junior resource companies. The top performer Lumina Gold Corp. (TSXV: LUM), was up 23.5%. LUM is advancing one of the largest undeveloped gold projects in the Americas. The Global X Gold Explorers ETF  (ARCA: GOEX) was up 2% last week. Our prior reports can be viewed here.

Top 5 Weekly PerformersWoW Returns
Lumina Gold Corp. (LUM.V)23.5%
Golden Minerals Company (AUMN.TO)14.8%
Rio2 Limited (RIO.V)14.3%
Western Exploration Inc. (WEX.V)11.8%
Starcore International Mines Ltd. (SAM.TO)11.1%
* Past performance is not indicative of future performance (as of April 10, 2023)

Companies on our Top Picks list are up 11% on average since we initiated coverage vs -29% for the benchmark (TSXV).

AIW Top Picks
Total Return1 Week1 mo3 mo6 mo1 yrSince launch
Special Situations (MIC)4.1%-16.8%-17.0%-16.8%-40.2%-21.5%
Private CompaniesN/AN/AN/AN/A6.3%7.1%
Portfolio (Total)-0.4%-3.6%-9.6%-6.5%-34.2%11.2%
Benchmark (Total)-0.8%2.4%5.4%6.5%-28.6%-29.3%
Portfolio (Annualized)-----34.2%1.1%
Benchmark (Annualized) -----28.6%-3.7%

1. Since the earliest initiating date of companies in the list of Top Picks (as of April 10, 2023)
2. Green (blue) indicates FRC’s picks outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark.
3. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.

Weekly Mining Commentary

Last week, global equity markets were up 0.1% on average (up 2.7% in the prior week). The Bank of Canada is expected to maintain its benchmark rate in its meeting this week. That said, all eyes are on the U.S. CPI (inflation) report, which is due later this week.

current vs pre covid mining chart

Source: FRC/Various

Although inventory levels declined on the LME and SHFE (Shanghai), base metal prices retreated due to a stronger US$.

week over week graph of market
year over year of market
lme chart
shfe chart

Valuations of gold producers were up 2% last week (up 0.5% in the prior week); base metal producers were down 1% last week (up 5% in the prior week).

gold producers chart
base metal producer
 Gold ProducersEV / R   (forward)EV / EBITDA (forward)EV / R (forward)EV / EBITDA (forward)
3Polyus n/an/an/an/a
4Agnico Eagle3.918.324.259.15
5AngloGold 2.486.202.526.12
6Kinross Gold 2.135.652.205.82
7Gold Fields2.845.723.076.25
13Eldorado Gold2.045.402.085.42
 Average (excl outliers)2.746.262.816.57
 Base Metal ProducersEV / R   (forward)EV / EBITDA (forward)EV / R (forward)EV / EBITDA (forward)
1BHP Group 3.115.662.925.34
2Rio Tinto2.304.942.234.76
5Anglo American1.473.931.443.83
6Teck Resources2.144.592.325.06
7First Quantum3.117.533.127.60
 Average (excl outliers)

We are maintaining our metal price forecasts.  

FRC Forecasts
Current Price2023E Long-Term (2025+)
Gold (US$/oz)$1,990$1,825$1,400
Silver (US$/oz)$24.81$22.00$18.00
Copper (US$/lb)$4.01$3.50$3.00
Zinc (US$/lb)$1.27$1.25$1.10
Nickel (US$/lb)$10.19$10.00$8.00
Source: FRC

Source: FRC

Key sector developments are listed below (mostly positive):

-Sayona Mining Limited (ASX: SYA) and Piedmont Lithium (ASX:PLL) have commenced spodumene concentrate (lithium) production at their North American Lithium project in Quebec. Concentrates will be sold to Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and LG Chem (KOSE: A051910).

-Hecla Mining (NYSE: HL/MCAP: US$3.89B) has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire ATAC Resources(TSXV: ATC) for $39M. The offer price reflects a 109% premium to ATC’s last closing price.  ATC holds high-grade gold projects in the Yukon.

-Peru’s Minister of Energy and Mines has stated that copper production in Peru will likely  grow by 15% this year. Peru is the second largest copper producer in the world. As mentioned in our previous reports, we are expecting downward pressure on copper prices, amid rising supply, and slower GDP growth. The copper market is expected to move from a deficit last year, to a surplus this year.

Updates from Resource Companies Under Coverage

CMC Metals Ltd./ TSXV: CMB

PR Title

Identified high grade silver-lead-zinc samples, and extensive mineralized zones in trenches at its Blue Heaven-Silver Hart project, south-central Yukon

FRC Opinion

Positive – Promising results; samples returned high silver-lead-zinc grades, potentially expanding the project’s inferred resources totaling 7.5 Moz silver equivalent. This property remains severely untested.

Golden Minerals Company/ NYSE: AUMN

PR Title

Announces improved  concentrate terms for gold-pyrite concentrates from Velardeña

FRC Opinion

Positive – AUMN has stated that they could possibly advance the Velardeña project to production without building a BIOX plant. This scenario should drive CAPEX lower by US$14.5M, to just US$6M. Management has stated that they could commence production as soon as mid-2023. However,  a formal decision will be made only after evaluating the project’s economics.

Hot Chili Limited/ STXV: HCH

PR Title

New drill results boost Cortadera’s copper-gold growth potential (Chile)

FRC Opinion

Positive – An ongoing drill program returned high copper grades, extending mineralization at depth. These results should positively impact an updated resource update, expected in H2-2023.

Steppe Gold Ltd./ TSX: STGO

PR Title

Announces a $9M private placement

FRC Opinion

Positive – Proceeds will be used to fund phase two expansion, to potentially increase production to 100+ Koz per year. STGO had sold 34 Koz gold last year.

New Age Metals Inc./ TSXV: NAM

PR Title

Expands lithium portfolio by acquiring the 19,321 ha McLaughlin Lake lithium project, Manitoba

FRC Opinion

Positive – NAM has expanded its lithium land holdings by 79%. The recently acquired property hosts spodumene-bearing pegmatites over a strike length of 30 km. This property is in early stages, and has never been drill tested.

Denarius Metals Corp./ TSXV: DSLV

PR Title

Closed a $7.4M financing

FRC Opinion

Positive – Well funded for aggressively exploring its polymetallic projects in Spain. In addition, DSLV is aiming to commence production at its Zancudo project in Colombia through local contract miners.

Colibri Resource Corporation/TSXV: CBI

PR Title

Confirms distribution of historical high-grade samples at its newly acquired Plomo gold project, Mexico

FRC Opinion

Positive – Although too early to comment on the project’s potential, we were pleased to see that 25 grab samples returned values >1.0 g/t Au, including six with values >5 g/t. Management is planning additional exploration to identify drill targets.

Financial / Technoloy / Energy / Special Situations 

The INX Digital Company Inc./ NEO: INXD

PR Title

Announces 2022 financial results

FRC Opinion

Positive – 2022 revenue from trading and brokerage fee was up 77% YoY, beating our estimate by 19%. EBITDA improved YoY from -$41M to -$25M, but was weaker than our estimate of -$22m, due to higher than expected G&A expenses. We will publish an update report shortly.

Siyata Mobile Inc./NASDAQ: SYTA

PR Title

Received a $0.6M order from a school district in the southwest U.S.

FRC Opinion

Positive – This is the largest order from a single customer in the education sector. SYTA’s devices will be used by safety staff, teachers, and school bus drivers. We believe this is a major milestone for SYTA, considering that school safety is a leading public safety concern.

Weekly Crypto Commentary

Prices of mainstream/popular cryptos were up 2% on average last week (up 6% in the previous week).

April 10, 2023
Binance Coin28%2%-25%

Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance

The global MCAP of cryptos is US$1.19T, up 27% MoM, but down 39% YoY.

total crypto market cap

Source: Coinmarketcap

Companies operating in the crypto space are trading at an average EV/R of 5.1x (previously 5.4x).

EV/R of Crypto Companies

ev crypto companies

Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC

April 10, 2023
Crypto CompaniesTickerTEV/Revenue
Banxa HoldingsTSXV: BNXA0.6
BIGG DigitalCSE: BIGG7.6
Canaan Inc. NASDAQ: CAN0.5
Coinbase GlobalNASDAQ: COIN4.3
Galaxy Digital HoldingsTSX: GLXYN/A
Hive Blockchain TechnologiesTSXV:HIVE2.1
Marathon Digital HoldingsNASDAQ: MARA17.1
Hut 8 Mining Corp. TSX: HUT3.4
Riot BlockchainNASDAQ: RIOT5.1

Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC

Key sector developments are listed below (mixed):

-South Korean crypto exchange GDAC has halted deposits and withdrawals, as its platform was recently hacked for US$14M worth of cryptos.

 –CryptoGPT, which owns an AI-focused blockchain technology, raised US$10M through a Series A financing, at an implied valuation of US$250M.

Weekly Cannabis Commentary


Cannabis Industry Performance

April 10, 2023
U.S. CompaniesYTD1-Week1-Year
Cresco Labs Inc. -16%3%-73%
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. -45%-12%-65%
Green Thumb Industries Inc.-18%-3%-58%
Trulieve Cannabis Corp.-31%-3%-73%
Canadian CompaniesYTD1-Week1-Year
Aurora Cannabis Inc.-29%-2%-80%
Canopy Growth Corp.-31%-5%-75%
Cronos Group Inc.-25%-4%-41%
HEXO Corp.27%3%-82%
Organigram Holdings Inc.-19%2%-53%
Tilray Inc.1%9%-54%
Canadian Average-13%0%-64%
U.S. Average-28%-4%-67%

Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance

Last week, Canadian cannabis stocks outperformed their U.S. peers (0% vs -4%). Canadian stocks had outperformed in the week prior to last as well.

 Key sector developments are listed below (positive):

 -In 2022, Germany imported 25,000 kg of cannabis for medical or scientific purposes, up 19% YoY (Source: The Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices).

 -The Texas House of Representatives is voting on a bill next week, allowing doctors to recommend medical marijuana to patients for treating chronic pain.


Canadian cannabis stocks are trading at a 6% premium (previously 6% premium) relative to their U.S. peers.

April 03, 2023April 10, 2023
Canadian CompaniesTEV/RevenueTEV/EBITDATEV/RevenueTEV/EBITDA
Aurora Cannabis Inc.TSX: ACB1.5NM1.4NM
Canopy Growth Corp.TSX: WEED4.0NM3.7NM
Cronos Group Inc.TSX: CRON0.0NM0.0NM
Organigram Holdings Inc.TSX: OGI1.
Tilray Inc.NASDAQ: TLRY2.9NM3.0NM
U.S. CompaniesTickerTEV/RevenueTEV/EBITDATEV/RevenueTEV/EBITDA
Cresco Labs Inc. OTC: CRLBF1.
Curaleaf Holdings Inc. OTC: CURLF2.
Green Thumb Industries Inc.OTC: GTBIF2.
Trulieve Cannabis Corp.OTC TCNNF1.
Implied   Premium (Canada vs U.S.) (Average)6%6%

Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

                                                                                       Average EV/R

average ev r

Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

Canadian Retail Cannabis Stores

Currently, there are 3,507 retail cannabis stores in Canada, a decrease of four stores WoW, including three closures in B.C, and one in Alberta.

                                                                                     Nationwide Store Count

store count

Source: Provincial Websites, FRC

Geographic RegionStore CountStore CountStore CountStore CountPopulationPopulation / Store
Alberta 758 756 756 755 4,428,247 5,865
B.C. 429 431 485 482 5,120,184 10,623
Manitoba 151 151 167 167 1,379,121 8,258
N.B. 20 20 25 25 780,890 31,236
N.S. 37 37 46 46 978,274 21,267
Newfoundland 40 40 39 39 520,437 13,345
Northwest Territories 6 6 6 6 44,982 7,497
Nunavut 39,486
Ontario 1,501 1,513 1,727 1,727 14,745,040 8,538
P.E.I. 4 4 4 4 158,717 39,679
Quebec 87 87 89 89 8,552,362 96,094
Saskatchewan 130 130 161 161 1,181,987 7,342
Yukon 7 7 6 6 41,293 6,882
CANADA 3,170 3,182 3,511 3,507 37,971,020 10,827

Source: Provincial Websites, FRC

Psychedelic Industry Performance

Psychedelic Industry Performance

Psychedelic stocks were up 4% on average last week (up 7% in the previous week).

A key sector development is listed below (positive):

-In Minnesota, a bill for creating a psychedelic medicine task force has been introduced, for exploring the pros and cons of legalizing psychedelic medicine.

April 10, 2023
Atai Life Sciences N.V.-37%-12%-65%
COMPASS Pathways plc31%6%-16%
Cybin Inc.-9%0%-47%
Delic Holdings Corp.-84%26%-82%
GH Research-15%5%-56%
Mind Medicine Inc.0%-2%-80%
Numinus Wellness Inc.2%7%-58%
Seelos Therapeutics Inc.15%5%-3%

Source: TMX Money, FRC

Disclaimers and Disclosure

The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned are covered by FRC under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares/securities in some companies mentioned in this report. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit for subscription options. This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company, industry, and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. This REPORT is solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not intended as being a complete description of the company, industry, securities or developments referred to in the material. Any forecasts contained in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated, and HAVE NOT BEEN endorsed by the Management of the company which is the subject of this report. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report. The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction.

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Companies Mentioned:

Lumina Gold Corp. (LUM.V), Golden Minerals Company (AUMN.TO), Rio2 Limited (RIO.V), Western Exploration Inc. (WEX.V), Starcore International Mines Ltd. (SAM.TO), CMC Metals Ltd./ TSXV: CMB, Golden Minerals Company/ NYSE: AUMN, Hot Chili Limited/ STXV: HCH, Steppe Gold Ltd./ TSX: STGO, New Age Metals Inc./ TSXV: NAM, Denarius Metals Corp./ TSXV: DSLV, Colibri Resource Corporation/TSXV: CBI, The INX Digital Company Inc./ NEO: INXD, Siyata Mobile Inc./NASDAQ: SYTA.