Analysts’ Ideas Of The Week
- Our prediction for Canadian equities
- Our take on why the S&P 500 fell by 1.2% last week
- A graphite junior under our coverage is raising $4M to advance its project to production within six months
- A tech company under our coverage announced its largest sales order to date
- A positive signal for crypto prices
FRC Top Picks
The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks, including five junior resource companies. The top performer Millennial Potash Corp. (TSXV: MLP), was up 10.3%. MLP is completing a maiden NI 43-101 resource estimate for its Banio potash project in Gabon. We note that Africa needs domestic production, as it only has one operating potash mine, and imports most of its potash consumption from Russia. Our prior reports can be viewed here.
Companies on our Top Picks list are up 10% on average since we initiated coverage vs -30% for the benchmark (TSXV).
1. Since the earliest initiating date of companies in the list of Top Picks (as of July 10, 2023)
2. Green (blue) indicates FRC’s picks outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark.
3. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.
Weekly Mining Commentary
Last week, global equity markets were down 2.0% on average (up 2.5% in the prior week). The S&P 500 was down 1.2% amid robust jobs data and higher than expected wage growth in June, increasing chances for a 0.25% rate hike when the Fed meets later this month. The U.S. unemployment rate fell from 3.7% in May 2023, to 3.6% in June 2023. We are expecting Canadian equities to be under pressure as the Bank of Canada is likely to raise its benchmark rate by 0.25% in its meeting this week.
Metal prices were relatively flat last week.
Valuations of gold producers were down 3% last week (up 2% in the prior week); base metal producers were down 2% (up 3% in the prior week).
We are maintaining our metal price forecasts.
Updates from Resource Companies Under Coverage
Reports an average gold recovery rate of 69.3% from first round of metallurgical tests at Doby George, Nevada
Positive – In line with our expectations; Doby George has a near-surface/high-grade oxide gold resource, amenable to heap leach processing, indicating potential for relatively low OPEX/CAPEX. WEX is planning a resource expansion drill program, followed by a Pre-Feasibility (PFS) in 2024. We believe this deposit can be advanced to production quickly, at a low initial CAPEX.
Announces a non-brokered private placement of up to $4M
Positive – STS is aiming to commence production at its Santa Cruz graphite project (Brazil) by Q4-2023, and complete a PEA on its BamaStar project (Alabama) by Q1-2024.
Completes a PEA on the River Valley palladium project (Ontario)
Negative – The PEA returned an AT-NPV5% of US$135M, and a low AT-IRR of 11%, using US$2,150/oz Pd, US$1,050/oz Pt, and US$1,830/oz gold. Shares are trading at just 4% of AT-NPV. We were disappointed with the project’s low IRR. We will publish an update after completing a detailed review of the technical report. NAM remains focused on advancing its lithium portfolio.
Identifies significant anomalies on the Maskwa property (Quebec)
Positive – SOI has identified three anomalies with potential for hosting lithium-bearing rocks. The property is in early exploration stages.
Provides an exploration update on the Sortilegio copper-gold porphyry in Peru
Positive – Detailed mapping delineated a 1.8 km x 1 km area exhibiting alkalic porphyry style mineralization. We note that alkalic porphyry systems contain relatively high gold grades.
Financials, Technology, Energy, and Special Situations
Positive – SYTA has secured a $1.4M order for its flagship SD7 rugged handsets. SYTA has announced $6.1M in orders YTD, already surpassing its full-year sales of $6M in 2022. We are expecting revenue to grow by 60% in 2023.
Positive – The company has licensed one of its patented technologies, which focuses on mobile digital payments, to Silicon Valley-based PayToMe.co. As part of the agreement, APCX has received an undisclosed equity stake. PayToMe.co provides payment solutions to businesses. We believe such initiatives offer potential to generate near-term cash flows without incurring additional investments or costs, while the company continues to work on commercializing its own Commerse™ digital payments platform.
Negative – Revenue fell 27% YoY, to $11M in Q2-2023 (ended April), missing our estimate by 23%. The company’s flagship digital media and entertainment business experienced a 16% YoY decline in revenue, while revenue from the legacy telecom and call center services dropped by 45% YoY. We will publish an update shortly. On a positive note, the company has attracted Samsung (KRX: 005930) as the title sponsor for its Ultraliga esports tournament, an annual tournament for the League of Legends video game. We believe Samsung’s involvement should bring more exposure to ESE and attract additional users for its clients’ games/apps.
Weekly Crypto Commentary
Prices of mainstream/popular cryptos were relatively flat last week (up 5% on average in the previous week).
Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance
The global MCAP of cryptos is US$1.2T, up 7% MoM, and 23% YoY.
Companies operating in the crypto space are trading at an average EV/R of 10.1x (previously 9.6x).
EV/R of Crypto Companies
Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC
Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC
Key sector developments are listed below (mixed):
– According to Reuters, Binance’s market share in the U.S. plummeted from 22% in April 2023, to a mere 0.9% by June 2023, amidst the lawsuits filed by the U.S. SEC against Binance and its CEO.
– Last week, the CEO of BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) endorsed Bitcoin by calling it an “international asset”, while emphasizing the role of cryptos in digitizing gold. Last month, BlackRock launched a new crypto Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), which we believe is indicative of the increasing acceptance and interest in cryptos.
– As of July 9, 2023, Bitcoin’s hash rate was up 67% YTD (Source: Blockchain.com), indicating growing interest in Bitcoin mining. Since hash rates have historically served as leading indicators for crypto prices, we anticipate continued momentum in prices.
Weekly Cannabis Commentary
Cannabis Industry Performance
Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance
Last week, U.S. cannabis stocks outperformed their Canadian peers (2% vs -1%). U.S. stocks had outperformed in the week prior to last as well.
Canadian cannabis stocks are trading at a 19% discount on average (previously 13%) relative to their U.S. peers.
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
Psychedelic Industry Performance
Psychedelic stocks were up 10% on average last week (up 10% in the previous week as well).
Source: TMX Money, FRC
Disclaimers and Disclosure
The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned are covered by FRC under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares/securities in some companies mentioned in this report. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit https://www.researchfrc.com/website/subscribe for subscription options. This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company, industry, and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. This REPORT is solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not intended as being a complete description of the company, industry, securities or developments referred to in the material. Any forecasts contained in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated, and HAVE NOT BEEN endorsed by the Management of the company which is the subject of this report. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report. The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction.
Millennial Potash Corp. (MLP.V), Western Exploration Inc. (WEX.V), World Copper Ltd. (WCU.V), Noram Lithium Corp. (NRM.V), Panoro Minerals (PML.V), Western Exploration Inc./ TSXV: WEX, South Star Battery Metals Corp. / TSXV: STS, New Age Metals Inc. / TSXV: NAM, Sirios Resources Inc. / TSXV: SOI, Hannan Metals Ltd. / TSXV: HAN, Siyata Mobile Inc./NASDAQ: SYTA, Apptech Payments Corp./NASDAQ: APCX, ESE Entertainment Inc./.