Analysts’ Ideas Of The Week

Table of Contents:

1. Summary

2. FRC Top Picks

3. Weekly Mining Commentary

4. Updates from Resource Companies under Coverage

5. Updates from Financial, Technology, Energy, and Special Situations Companies under Coverage

6. Weekly Crypto Commentary

7. Weekly Cannabis Commentary

8. Psychedelic Industry Performance

Summary

1. We are expecting the U.S. government to raise its debt ceiling this week
2. Our take on why Alpha Lithium (NEO: ALLI) rejected a $241M offer from Spain’s Tecpetrol Investments
3. Albemarle Corp. (NYSE: ALB) has entered into a supply agreement with Ford (NYSE: F)
4. A gold junior under coverage has secured a US$300M financing from Wheaton Precious Metals (TSX: WPM)
5. Binance has been accused of commingling customer funds with own funds

FRC Top Picks

The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks, including five junior resource companies. The top performer Verde Agritech (TSX: NPK), was up 19.8%, even though Q1 results (announced last week) did not meet our expectations (discussed later in this report). Our prior reports can be viewed here.

Companies on our Top Picks list are up 13% on average since we initiated coverage vs -31% for the benchmark (TSXV).

1. Since the earliest initiating date of companies in the list of Top Picks (as of May 23, 2023)
2. Green (blue) indicates FRC’s picks outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark.
3. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.

Weekly Mining Commentary

Last week, global equity markets were up 0.9% on average (up 0.2% in the prior week). We are expecting the U.S. government to raise its debt ceiling this week, which should drive equity markets higher.

Source: FRC/Various

Metal prices retreated amid a stronger US$.

Valuations of gold producers were down 5% last week (down 4% in the prior week); base metal producers were down 0.1% last week (down 4% in the prior week).

We are maintaining our metal price forecasts.

Source: FRC

Key sector developments are listed below (positive):

– Alpha Lithium (MCAP: $235M) has rejected a $241M all-cash offer from Spain’s Tecpetrol Investments. The offer reflected a 13% premium to ALLI’s last closing price. ALLI is advancing lithium projects in Argentina. A PEA is underway. We support ALLI’s decision as the offer price reflects a valuation of just $67/t (lithium carbonate) vs the sector average of $142/t.

– Albemarle has entered into an agreement with Ford to supply 100,000 tonnes of battery grade lithium hydroxide over five years.

Updates from Resource Companies Under Coverage

FRC Opinion

Positive – Through this agreement, LUM has secured approximately 30% of the capital required to advance the Cangrejos copper-gold project (Ecuador) to production. WPM will receive 6.6% of annual gold production, by paying 18% of spot prices. We estimate this deal reflects an implied long-term gold price of US$1,700/oz. We will produce an update report shortly.   

FRC Opinion

Positive – A recent study indicated that the company’s projects do not have any known archaeological sites, which we believe should positively impact permitting, and ongoing discussions with local First Nations.

FRC Opinion

Positive – Drilling continues to return high silver grades; the company has also identified new shallow veins. These results reflect the project’s resource expansion potential. Per  a resource study in 2022, the project has indicated and inferred resources totaling 1.04 Moz AuEq.

FRC Opinion

Neutral – Upon completing its due diligence, AGX has decided to pull out of a previously announced deal to acquire the RV project in Colorado out of receivership. We are not making changes to our fair value estimate, as we had not incorporated this deal in our models.

FRC Opinion

Positive – All 10 holes of a recently completed drill program intersected spodumene-bearing dykes. Management is planning additional drilling.

FRC Opinion

Negative – Revenue was down 2% YoY, amid lower demand for fertilizers in Brazil. EPS was down as well (from $0.06 to -$0.002), missing our forecast of $0.03. We will produce an update report shortly.

Financial / Technology / Energy / Special Situations 

FRC Opinion

Positive – In Q1-2023, revenue rose 22% YoY, beating our estimate by 7%. EPS improved YoY, from -$0.03 to $0.01, beating our estimate of -$0.01. We will produce an update report shortly.

FRC Opinion

Positive – Revenue fell 9% YoY, missing our estimate by 10%. On a positive note, revenue from the company’s flagship SD7 push-to-talk over cellular device was up 19% YoY. EPS improved YoY, from -$4.87 to -$0.73, but was lower than our estimate of -$0.26. We will produce an update report shortly.

FRC Opinion

Positive – OCEA has secured a $25M  convertible note financing; OCEA is planning to submit applications to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to commence human clinical trials.

Weekly Crypto Commentary

Prices of mainstream/popular cryptos were up 1% on average last week (flat on average in the previous week).

Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance

The global MCAP of cryptos is US$1.1T, down 4% MoM, and 14% YoY.

Source: Coinmarketcap

Companies operating in the crypto space are trading at an average EV/R of 6.8x (previously 6.1x).

EV/R of Crypto Companies

Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC

Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC

Key sector developments are listed below (mixed):

  – Binance has denied a recent statement made by Reuters that it has commingled customer funds with own funds.

  – Retail investors in Hong Kong will be allowed to start trading cryptos next month. The Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission has informed exchanges that approved tokens need a 12-month track record, and substantial MCAP.

Weekly Cannabis Commentary

Cannabis Industry Performance

Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance

Last week, U.S cannabis stocks outperformed their Canadian peers (3.5% vs 2.0%). U.S stocks had underperformed in the week prior to last.

 Key sector developments are listed below (positive):

 – According to Statistics Canada, Canadian retail cannabis sales were up 11% MoM, and 13% YoY, in April 2023.

– Minnesota is all set to become the 23rd state in the U.S. to legalize recreational cannabis.

Valuation

Canadian cannabis stocks are trading at a 1% discount on average (previously 7%) relative to their U.S. peers.

Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

                                                                                       Average EV/R

Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

Source: Provincial Websites, FRC

Psychedelic Industry Performance

Psychedelic Industry Performance

Psychedelic stocks were flat on average last week (up 3% in the previous week).

Source: TMX Money, FRC

Disclaimers and Disclosure

The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned are covered by FRC under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares/securities in some companies mentioned in this report. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit https://www.researchfrc.com/website/subscribe for subscription options. This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company, industry, and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. This REPORT is solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not intended as being a complete description of the company, industry, securities or developments referred to in the material. Any forecasts contained in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated, and HAVE NOT BEEN endorsed by the Management of the company which is the subject of this report. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report. The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction.