Analysts’ Ideas Of The Week
- Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and Jack Ma are backing a company that utilizes artificial intelligence for exploring and mining metals.
- Our take on why the US$ gained and metal prices retreated last week.
- A gold junior under our coverage has completed a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA). Its shares are trading at just 26% of the after-tax NPV.
- The crypto market received a major vote of confidence last week, thanks to initiatives by major financial firms such as Charles Schwab (NYSE: SCHW), Fidelity (NYSE: FIS), Citadel Securities, BlackRock (NYSE: BLK), and HSBC (LSE: HSBA).
- Non-custodial crypto exchanges are attracting attention.
FRC Top Picks
The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks, including five junior resource companies. The top performer Rio2 Limited (TSXV: RIO), was up 40.5%. RIO is advancing a large gold project in Chile towards production. Our prior reports can be viewed here.
Companies on our Top Picks list are up 9% on average since we initiated coverage vs -32% for the benchmark (TSXV).
1. Since the earliest initiating date of companies in the list of Top Picks (as of Jun 26, 2023)
2. Green (blue) indicates FRC’s picks outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark.
3. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.
Weekly Mining Commentary
Last week, global equity markets retreated, and were down 1.8% on average (up 1.1% in the prior week). The S&P 500 was down 1.5%, and the US$ was up 0.3%, on hawkish Fed expectations. On June 22, 2023, the Bank of England raised its benchmark rate by 0.5%. We expect equity markets to remain volatile in the coming weeks, until we have more clarity on the future moves of the Fed regarding rate hikes.
Metal prices retreated last week, amid a stronger US$.
Valuations of gold producers were down 4% last week (up 0.3% in the prior week); base metal producers were down 5% last week (up 5% in the prior week).
We are maintaining our metal price forecasts.
A key sector development is listed below (positive):
– Bill Gates’ venture firm, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, backed by Jack Ma and Jeff Bezos, recently led a US$200M financing round for KoBold Metals, reflecting an implied valuation of US$1B. We had mentioned KoBold in a note back in December 2022, when it announced plans to invest US$150M in a copper-cobalt project in Zambia. KoBold claims to have developed a technology (using artificial intelligence) to process drill data and explore for metals. We believe such developments should improve investor sentiment towards the sector.
Updates from Resource Companies Under Coverage
Completes a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for the Copperstone project, Arizona
Positive – The PEA returned an AT-NPV5% of US$61M, and a high AT-IRR of 50%, using US$1,800/oz gold. It is estimated that this project will produce 40,765 Koz per year over 5.6 years. We note that shares are trading at just 26% of AT-NPV.
Begins gold concentrate shipments at the Selinsing gold mine (Malaysia)
Positive – We anticipate that production will double to 20+ Koz within the next 12 months.
Announces a non-brokered private placement for up to $1.25M
Positive – The proceeds will be allocated towards phase two drilling at the company’s Let’s Go Lithium project in Nevada. This property shows potential for lithium-bearing clay mineralization, similar to advanced-stage deposits in Nevada, including those owned by Century Lithium (TSXV: LCE) and Noram Lithium (TSXV: NRM).
Signs surface rights agreement for exploration drilling on the Nora silver-gold property (Mexico)
Positive – This agreement allows SLV to start surface exploration and drilling. Nora is prospective for epithermal gold-silver mineralization. Past drilling has returned high gold, silver, and copper grades over significant intervals.
Samples 9.84 g/t Au on the Plomo property, Sonora (Mexico)
Positive – Drilling intersected several shallow mineralized veins, and expanded mineralization at the North target area. Assay results are expected in August 2023.
Positive results from an ongoing bulk sampling program at the Pilar gold-silver project in Sonora, Mexico.
Positive – 88% of samples from the Pavo Real target returned significant gold grades, including a high grade of 9.84 g/t. This property is contiguous with CBI’s flagship Evelyn project, which is located close to Fresnillo’s (LSE: FRES) La Herradura and Noche Buena mines.
Sokoman and Benton (TSXV: BEX) intersect 1.22% Li2O over 13.37 m at the Killick zone
Positive – All 11 holes on the Killick zone of the Golden Hope JV project (Canada) intersected high lithium grades. Management plans to continue testing the Killick zone and drill test the Hydra target.
Reports high-grade copper and silver assays from the AM-7 target
Positive – Promising results; channel sampling at the recently discovered 2+ km long AM-7 copper-silver system on the CESAR project (Colombia) returned high copper grades, including 1.5 m of 18.3% Cu and 3.8 m of 1.4% Cu
Financial / Technology / Energy / Special Situations
Extends operating life of lubricants by more than 24 times
Positive – Promising results; tests indicate that HG’s graphene can extend the operating life of lubricants by more than 24 times. We consider this a major testimonial for the effectiveness of HG’s graphene. HG has sent its samples to 40+ potential customers in North America, Europe, and Asia for a wide range of applications. Management expects to enter into supply agreements and receive initial sales orders in H1-2024.
Weekly Crypto Commentary
Prices of mainstream/popular cryptos were up 5% on average last week (flat in the previous week).
Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance
The global MCAP of cryptos is US$1.2T, up 5% MoM, and up 27% YoY.
Companies operating in the crypto space are trading at an average EV/R of 8.4x (previously 6.9x).
EV/R of Crypto Companies
Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC
Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC
Key sector developments are listed below (positive):
– Major financial firms such as Charles Schwab, Fidelity Digital Assets, Citadel Securities, and Sequoia Capital have launched a new non-custodial crypto exchange called EDX Markets. Last month, we initiated coverage on a company named Bitcoin Well, which offers non-custodial crypto trading services. Due to a stricter regulatory landscape, and with several custodial crypto exchanges having either imploded or filed for bankruptcies in the past six months, we believe that non-custodial crypto platforms should gain traction.
– Blackrock is launching a new crypto Exchange Traded Fund (ETF). We believe this move by one of the leading financial firms signifies the growing acceptance and interest in cryptos.
– HSBC has started offering crypto trading services in Hong Kong.
Weekly Cannabis Commentary
Cannabis Industry Performance
Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance
Last week, U.S. cannabis stocks outperformed their Canadian peers (-2% vs -3%). U.S. stocks had outperformed in the week prior to last as well.
Canadian cannabis stocks are trading at a 25% discount on average (previously 27%) relative to their U.S. peers.
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
Psychedelic Industry Performance
Psychedelic stocks were down 4% on average last week (up 3% in the previous week).
Source: TMX Money, FRC
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The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned are covered by FRC under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares/securities in some companies mentioned in this report. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit https://www.researchfrc.com/website/subscribe for subscription options. This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company, industry, and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. This REPORT is solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not intended as being a complete description of the company, industry, securities or developments referred to in the material. Any forecasts contained in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated, and HAVE NOT BEEN endorsed by the Management of the company which is the subject of this report. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report. The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction.
Rio2 Limited (RIO.V), Kootenay Silver Inc. (KTN.V), Fortune Minerals Limited (FT.TO), World Copper Ltd. (WCU.V), Sabre Gold Mines Corp. (SGLD.TO), Sabre Gold Mines Corp./ TSX: SGLD, Monument Mining Limited / TSXV: MMY, Rover Metals Corp. / TSXV: ROVR, Silver Dollar Resources Inc. / CSE: SLV, Colibri Resource Corporation / TSXV: CBI, Colibri Resource Corporation / TSXV: CBI, Sokoman Minerals Corp. / TSXV: SIC, Max Resource Corp. /TSXV: MAX, HydroGraph Clean Power Inc./ CSE: HG.