Analysts’ Ideas Of The Week
- Dovish indicators for central banks
- Our outlook for gold and silver prices
- Are investors shifting their capital from cryptos to AI-based offerings?
- A junior gold producer under our coverage has attracted a US$150M financing to potentially triple production
- Promising operating metrics from an AdTech company under our coverage
FRC Top Picks
The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks, including five junior resource companies. The top performer Hot Chili Limited (TSXV: HCH), was up 33.4%. HCH recently attracted a US$15M financing from Osisko Gold Royalties (TSX: OR). Our prior reports can be viewed here.
Last week, companies on our Top Picks list were up 1.1% on average vs 0.9% for the benchmark (TSXV).
1. Since the earliest initiating date of companies in the list of Top Picks (as of July 17, 2023)
2. Green (blue) indicates FRC’s picks outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark.
3. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.
Weekly Mining Commentary
Last week, global equity markets were up 1.7% on average (down 2.0% in the prior week) amid new data suggesting cooling inflation in the U.S., and slower than expected GDP growth in China. We view these data points as dovish indicators for the central banks of both countries.
Metal prices surged amid a weaker US$. In May 2023, we had forecasted weakness in the US$, and it has since declined by 1.5%. We maintain a positive outlook on gold/silver prices, despite the Fed’s indication of two additional rate hikes this year. After its upcoming meeting later this month, we believe the Fed will potentially maintain or initiate rate cuts, amid slower GDP growth, rising financial instability, and cooling inflation.
Valuations of gold producers were up 9% last week (down 3% in the prior week); base metal producers were up 8% last week (down 2% in the prior week).
We are maintaining our metal price forecasts.
Key sector developments are listed below (positive):
– B2Gold (TSX: BTO) has disclosed that it is considering adding gold projects to its portfolio. BTO had acquired Sabina Gold for $1.1B earlier this year. We believe BTO’s statement reaffirms our forecast for a surge in M&A transactions this year, considering the prevailing depressed valuations of juniors, and the fact that equities have underperformed metal prices. For example, gold prices are up 62% in the past five years, but the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) has only increased by 39%. In the previous gold bull market (2009 – 2011), GDXJ had outperformed gold.
– Graphite One (TSXV: GPH) has received a $37.5M funding from the U.S. Department of Defense for advancing a feasibility study on GPH’s graphite project in Alaska. Graphite is on the U.S. government’s list of critical minerals, and the country imports 100% of its graphite consumption. We consider this funding to be a significant vote of confidence for graphite juniors in the U.S.
Updates from Resource Companies Under Coverage
Signs a binding term sheet for US$150M with the Trade and Development Bank of Mongolia to fully fund phase two expansion of the ATO gold mine (Mongolia)
Positive – This funding allows STGO to potentially increase production to 100+ Koz per year by 2025, up from 33 Koz in 2022. ATO has potential to produce 103 Koz per year for 12 years.
Intersects wide gold intervals in two step-out holes at the Goldstorm deposit, Treaty Creek (B.C.)
Positive – Assays returned high gold grades over wide intervals (such as 413 m of 1.01 g/t AuEq, and 338 m of 1.31 g/t), indicating resource expansion potential. We note that the project already has a large-resource-base totaling 31 Moz AuEq.
Additional 100+ m lithium intersections returned at Andover (Australia)
Positive – Drilling continues to return high lithium grades, such as 101 m of 1.21% Li2O. The company is completing a maiden lithium resource estimate for the project, which already has a delineated nickel/copper resource.
Announces additional drill results from the West Graham project, Sudbury, Ontario
Positive – Assays from a phase one drill program returned high nickel grades, such as 9 m of 0.94% Ni & 0.68% Cu. A phase two program is underway to support a maiden NI 43-101 compliant resource estimate.
Announces an update on its regional graphite exploration program in Quebec
Positive – Promising results; exploration of 15 out of 55 targets identified 10 new graphite showings, with 65% of grab samples returning attractive grades of >5% graphite.
Positive – Drilling continues to return high gold grades over long intervals at West Nordeau (15 m of 3.2 g/t Au) and West Chimo (4 m of 2.8 g/t Au), potentially expanding the current resource envelope along depth.
Intersects 316.9 m of 1.16% CuEq at the Cotabambas project, Peru
Positive – Infill and step-out holes returned high copper grades, potentially expanding the current resource-base. Management is aiming to complete a resource update by September 2023.
Financials, Technology, Energy, and Special Situations
Positive – Promising operating metrics; monetized impressions were up 36% QoQ, to 350M. Video views were up 39% QoQ, to 230M. We believe these metrics support our 2023 revenue forecast of $17.6M (unchanged), which is in line with management’s guidance of $16.5-18.5M.
Positive – We believe this financing is a result of a record order for its SD7 rugged handsets, mentioned in our note last week. SYTA has announced $6.1M in orders YTD, already surpassing its full-year sales of $6M in 2022. We are expecting revenue to grow by 60% in 2023.
Weekly Crypto Commentary
Prices of mainstream/popular cryptos were up 10% on average last week (flat in the previous week).
Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance
The global MCAP of cryptos is US$1.2T, up 14% MoM, and 22% YoY.
Companies operating in the crypto space are trading at an average EV/R of 10.4x (previously 10.1x).
EV/R of Crypto Companies
Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC
Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC
Key sector developments are listed below (mixed):
– Europe’s first Bitcoin ETF is expected to be launched this month.
– National Australia Bank (NAB) has joined other major financial institutions in Australia by imposing restrictions on customers’ ability to send money to certain crypto exchanges. NAB has identified crypto scams as the fastest-growing security threat for Australians.
– According to a survey conducted by the Bank for International Settlements, one-third of global central banks are planning to implement Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in the next few years. As we have previously stated, CBDCs pose potential threats to private cryptos, such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.
– Data from PitchBook reveals that investors have been shifting their investments from cryptos to AI-based offerings over the past four quarters.
Weekly Cannabis Commentary
Cannabis Industry Performance
Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance
Last week, U.S. cannabis stocks underperformed their Canadian peers (-2% vs -6%). U.S. stocks had outperformed in the week prior to last.
Canadian cannabis stocks are trading at a 14% discount on average (previously 19%) relative to their U.S. peers.
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
Psychedelic Industry Performance
Psychedelic stocks were down 1% on average last week (up 10% in the previous week).
Source: TMX Money, FRC
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The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned are covered by FRC under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares/securities in some companies mentioned in this report. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit https://www.researchfrc.com/website/subscribe for subscription options. This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company, industry, and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. This REPORT is solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not intended as being a complete description of the company, industry, securities or developments referred to in the material. Any forecasts contained in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated, and HAVE NOT BEEN endorsed by the Management of the company which is the subject of this report. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report. The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction.
Hot Chili Limited (HHLKF), Southern Silver Exploration Corp. (SSV.V), Contango Ore Inc. (CTGO), E3 Lithium Limited (ETL.V), Rio2 Limited (RIO.V), Steppe Gold Ltd. / TSX: STGO, Tudor Gold Corp./ TSXV: TUD, Azure Minerals Limited / ASX: AZS, SPC Nickel Corp./ TSXV: SPC, Lomiko Metals Inc./ TSXV: LMR, Cartier Resources Inc. / TSXV: ECR, Panoro Minerals Ltd. / TSXV: PML, Kidoz Inc./, Siyata Mobile Inc./ NASDAQ: SYTA