Analysts’ Ideas Of The Week
- The factor behind the rise in equity markets and the retreat of the US$ today.
- Saudi Arabia’s move holds promise for miners. We expect other oil-dependent nations in the Middle East will follow suit.
- Shares of a lithium junior on our list of top picks were up 27% last week
- We were surprised by the results of a new survey on crypto adoption
- More evidence supporting the possibility of continued consolidation among crypto exchanges
FRC Top Picks
The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks, including four junior resource companies, and a biotech company. The top performer, E3 Lithium (TSXV: ETL), was up 26.6%. ETL is advancing a large lithium project in Alberta towards production. Our prior reports can be viewed here.
Companies on our Top Picks list are up 14% on average since we initiated coverage vs -35% for the benchmark (TSXV).
1. Since the earliest initiating date of companies in the list of Top Picks (as of September 11, 2023)
2. Green (blue) indicates FRC’s picks outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark.
3. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.
Weekly Mining Commentary
Equity markets and the US$ were relatively flat last week. Today, the S&P 500 was up 0.7%, and the US$ was down 0.5% ahead of inflation data and other key economic indicators in the coming days. The European Central Bank is projected to keep its rate steady in its upcoming meeting on Thursday.
Last week, metal prices were down 2% on average (up 0.2% in the previous week).
Valuations of gold producers were down 2% last week (up 0.1% in the prior week); base metal producers were down 5% last week (up 5% in the prior week).
We are maintaining our metal price forecasts.
A key sector development is listed below (positive):
– Sources indicate that a state-owned entity in Saudi Arabia is preparing to invest US$15B in mining projects across Africa. This follows Saudi Arabia’s noteworthy venture into the mining sector earlier this year, when its sovereign wealth fund, and a state-owned mining firm, jointly invested US$2.5B for a 10% stake in Vale’s (NYSE: VALE) base metals division. We foresee other oil-dependent nations in the Middle East adopting similar steps to diversify their economies.
Updates from Resource Companies Under Coverage
A step out hole intersected 25 m of sulfides (Nisk project, Quebec)
Positive – This hole has extended mineralization by 300 m along south. PNPN is completing a NI 43-101 compliant resource for this high-grade nickel project.
Provides an update on mine optimization studies (Zeus lithium project, Nevada)
Positive – Optimization studies indicated that the project can process higher grade materials during its initial years of operation, potentially reducing both CAPEX and OPEX. Zeus hosts a high-tonnage/high-grade lithium resource.
Intercepts a new high-grade skarn at the Cotabambas project, Peru
Positive – Four holes intersected high-grade skarn mineralization outside the existing resource-base. PML is aiming to complete an updated resource estimate this month.
Outlines large conductor targets beneath the Layden intrusive at the Taylor Brook Project (Canada)
Positive – CRI has delineated multiple geophysical targets beneath the main target (the Layden intrusive), indicating that the Layden intrusive may be part of a much larger mineralized zone. Management is planning a drill program to test these new targets.
Positive chip sample results of up to 9.63 g/t Au from the Triple T gold project (Nevada)
Positive – 88% of samples returned anomalous gold values, including five samples between 2.71 g/t and 9.63 g/t Au. These results have expanded the project’s target area. Triple T is prospective for high-grade/shallow epithermal gold mineralization.
Financials, Technology, Energy, and Special Situations
Sekur Private Data Ltd./ CSE: SKUR
Reduced Customer Acquisition Costs (CAC) to US$26 in August 2023
Positive – Sekur’s CAC has declined from US$32 in June 2023, to US$26 by August 2023 vs subscription revenue of US$84- US$120/year/user. The significant decline can be attributed to the company’s shift towards in-house SEO marketing, and efforts to attract resellers and distributors, while cutting back on initiatives involving social media influencers.
Weekly Crypto Commentary
Prices of mainstream/popular cryptos were down 5% on average last week (down 6% in the previous week).
Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance
The global MCAP of cryptos is US$1.04T, down 11% MoM, and down 2% YoY.
Companies operating in the crypto space are trading at an average EV/R of 6.6x (previously 6.9x).
EV/R of Crypto Companies
Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC
Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC
Key sector developments are listed below (positive):
– In 2023, Binance and seven other exchanges controlled 90% of crypto trading, with Binance alone accounting for 60% (Source: Kaiko). We continue to expect sector-wide consolidation, with larger exchanges striving to increase their trading volume and lower fees to attract users.
– Per a survey conducted by Coalition Greenwich and Amberdata, 48% of asset managers in the U.S. and Europe manage cryptos for their clients. 25% of firms have dedicated digital asset managers. These results surprised us, as we had not predicted such a high level of adoption. We note that widespread adoption is critical for the long-term viability of cryptos.
Weekly Cannabis Commentary
Cannabis Industry Performance
Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance
Last week, U.S. cannabis stocks outperformed their Canadian peers (11% vs 10%). U.S. stocks had outperformed in the week prior to last as well.
Canadian cannabis stocks are trading at a 1% discount on average (unchanged) relative to their U.S. peers.
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC
Psychedelic Industry Performance
Psychedelic stocks were up 1% on average last week (down 2% in the previous week).
Source: TMX Money, FRC
Disclaimers and Disclosure
The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned are covered by FRC under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares/securities in some companies mentioned in this report, including STGX. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit https://www.researchfrc.com/website/subscribe for subscription options. This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company, industry, and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. This REPORT is solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not intended as being a complete description of the company, industry, securities or developments referred to in the material. Any forecasts contained in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated, and HAVE NOT BEEN endorsed by the Management of the company which is the subject of this report. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report. The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction.
E3 Lithium Limited (ETL.V), Southern Silver Exploration Corp. (SSV.V), Hemostemix Inc. (HEM.V), Sabre Gold Mines Corp. (SGLD.TO), Noram Lithium Corp. (NRM.V), Power Nickel inc. / TSXV: PNPN, Noram Lithium Corp. / TSXV: NRM, Panoro Minerals Ltd. / TSXV: PML, Churchill Resources Inc. / TSXV: CRI, NV Gold Corporation / TSXV: NVX, Sekur Private Data Ltd.