Analysts’ Ideas Of The Week

Table of Contents:

1. Summary

2. FRC Top Picks

3. Weekly Mining Commentary

4. Updates from Resource Companies under Coverage

5. Updates from Financial, Technology, Energy, and Special Situations Companies under Coverage

6. Weekly Crypto Commentary

7. Weekly Cannabis Commentary

8. Psychedelic Industry Performance

Summary

1. Our outlook for the US$ and metal prices
2. We are raising our 2023 average gold price forecast
3. Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) CEO’s comments on M&A
4. Good news for Bitcoin prices
5. The U.S. is opening its first psilocybin service center

FRC Top Picks

The following table shows last week’s top five performers among our Top Picks, including five junior resource companies. The top performer Lumina Gold Corp. (TSXV: LUM), was up 8.6%. Lumina is advancing a large gold-copper project in Ecuador. Our prior reports can be viewed here.

Companies on our Top Picks list are up 11% on average since we initiated coverage vs -30% for the benchmark (TSXV).

1. Since the earliest initiating date of companies in the list of Top Picks (as of May 8, 2023)
2. Green (blue) indicates FRC’s picks outperformed (underperformed) the benchmark.
3. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Our complete list of top picks (updated weekly) can be viewed here.

Weekly Mining Commentary

Last week, global equity markets were down 0.2% on average (up 1.0% in the prior week). As we expected, the Fed raised the benchmark rate by 0.25% in its meeting last week. The Fed also hinted that it is unlikely to deploy additional rate hikes this year.  Due to rising financial instability, and cooling inflation, we are expecting rate cuts in Q3/Q4. As the European Central Bank is more hawkish than the Fed, we are expecting weakness in the US$, which should drive metal prices higher in the coming weeks.

Source: FRC/Various

Gold and silver prices were up 2.4% on average, amid a weaker US$.

Valuations of gold producers were up 5% last week (up 4% in the prior week); base metal producers were up 2% last week (up 1% in the prior week).

We are raising our 2023 average gold price forecast by 3%, to US$1,875/oz.  

Source: FRC

Key sector developments are listed below (positive):

– Last week, the Fraser Institute published its 2022 annual survey of mining and exploration companies. The survey ranked Nevada (third in 2021), Western Australia (first in 2021), and Saskatchewan (second in 2021) as the top three mining jurisdictions in 2022.

– Rio Tinto (NYSE: RIO) CEO has stated that he is actively seeking lithium projects for M&A.

 – Gold Fields (JSE: GFI) is acquiring 50% of Osisko Mining’s (TSX: OSK) Windfall gold project (Quebec) for $600M. We note that this valuation is in line with a 2022 feasibility study, which had returned an AT-NPV5% of $1.2B, using US$1,600/oz gold, for a 100% interest in Windfall.

Updates from Resource Companies Under Coverage

FRC Opinion

Positive – Assays from the first five holes of a 12-hole program returned highly promising values. We are expecting a maiden resource estimate in the coming months.

FRC Opinion

Positive – These results plus the recently announced updated resource estimate should  positively impact an ongoing Pre-Feasibility Study on the La Loutre graphite project in Quebec.

FRC Opinion

Positive – Drilling intersected high gold grades over long intervals, including 16 m of 1.2 g/t Au, and 52 m of 0.9 g/t, confirming resource expansion potential of the Chimo mine project. A recent Preliminary Economic Assessment had returned promising economics, with an AT-NPV5% of $388M, and an AT-IRR of 21%, based on US$1,750/oz gold.

FRC Opinion

Positive – Bench-scale tests indicate that NZP can potentially produce  monocalcium phosphate (MCP) – a phosphorus supplement for the cattle/pig/poultry industry.

FRC Opinion

Positive – EUP is acquiring the remaining 30% interest for $330k, paid in cash and shares. The project is comprised of four pre-resource state copper-gold projects, including three past-producing mines. Management has yet to announce their exploration plans for this project.

FRC Opinion

Positive – Six out of eight holes of a recently completed drill program intersected significant  gold intercepts, including 29 m of 0.47 g/t Au, and 10 m of 0.47 g/t. We are expecting a maiden resource estimate next year.

Financial / Technology / Energy / Special Situations 

FRC Opinion

Positive – 2022 revenue was up 222% YoY, to $0.47M, exactly in line with our estimate. EPS improved YoY from -$0.11 to -$0.06, vs our forecast for -$0.05. We will produce an update report shortly.

Weekly Crypto Commentary

Prices of mainstream/popular cryptos were down at 4% on average last week (flat on average in the previous week).

Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance

The global MCAP of cryptos is US$1.2T, down 0.5% MoM, and 25% YoY.

Source: Coinmarketcap

Companies operating in the crypto space are trading at an average EV/R of 6.1x (previously 5.7x).

EV/R of Crypto Companies

Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC

Source: S&P Capital IQ/FRC

Key sector developments are listed below (mixed):

 – The U.S. government is planning to impose a 30% tax on the electricity used by crypto miners. We consider this positive for Bitcoin prices, as it will discourage crypto miners in the country, dirsupting Bitcoin supply. Note that the U.S. is the world’s largest Bitcoin miner.

 – In order to reduce exposure to cryptos, Argentina’s central bank has banned payment providers from offering crypto transactions to consumers.

Weekly Cannabis Commentary

Cannabis Industry Performance

Source: FRC/Yahoo Finance

Last week, U.S cannabis stocks outperformed their Canadian peers (7.5% vs 1.5%). U.S stocks had outperformed in the week prior to last as well.

 A key sector development is listed below (positive):

 – A recent study from the University of Colorado found that consistent cannabis use results in reduced pain and improved cognition among patients receiving chemotherapy.

Valuation

Canadian cannabis stocks are trading at a 2% premium (previously 4% discount) relative to their U.S. peers.

Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

                                                                                       Average EV/R

Source: S&P Capital IQ, FRC

Source: Provincial Websites, FRC

Psychedelic Industry Performance

Psychedelic Industry Performance

Psychedelic stocks were up 2% on average last week (down 5% in the previous week).

A key sector development is listed below (positive):

  – Oregon regulators have approved the country’s first license for a psilocybin service center.

Source: TMX Money, FRC

Disclaimers and Disclosure

The opinions expressed in this report are the true opinions of the analyst(s) about any companies and industries mentioned. Any “forward looking statements” are our best estimates and opinions based upon information that is publicly available and that we believe to be correct, but we have not independently verified with respect to truth or correctness. There is no guarantee that our forecasts will materialize. Actual results will likely vary. Certain companies mentioned are covered by FRC under an issuer paid model. FRC or companies with related management, and Analysts, may hold shares/securities in some companies mentioned in this report. Distribution procedure: our reports are distributed first to our web-based subscribers on the date shown on this report then made available to delayed access users through various other channels for a limited time. To subscribe for real-time access to research, visit https://www.researchfrc.com/website/subscribe for subscription options. This report contains “forward looking” statements. Forward-looking statements regarding the Company, industry, and/or stock’s performance inherently involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from such forward-looking statements. Factors that would cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, continued acceptance of the Company’s products/services in the marketplace; acceptance in the marketplace of the Company’s new product lines/services; competitive factors; new product/service introductions by others; technological changes; dependence on suppliers; systematic market risks and other risks discussed in the Company’s periodic report filings, including interim reports, annual reports, and annual information forms filed with the various securities regulators. By making these forward-looking statements, Fundamental Research Corp. and the analyst/author of this report undertakes no obligation to update these statements for revisions or changes after the date of this report. Fundamental Research Corp DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTIES, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO RESULTS TO BE OBTAINED FROM USING THIS INFORMATION AND MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR USE. ANYONE USING THIS REPORT ASSUMES FULL RESPONSIBILITY FOR WHATEVER RESULTS THEY OBTAIN FROM WHATEVER USE THE INFORMATION WAS PUT TO. ALWAYS TALK TO YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE YOU INVEST. WHETHER A STOCK SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN A PORTFOLIO DEPENDS ON ONE’S RISK TOLERANCE, OBJECTIVES, SITUATION, RETURN ON OTHER ASSETS, ETC. ONLY YOUR INVESTMENT ADVISOR WHO KNOWS YOUR UNIQUE CIRCUMSTANCES CAN MAKE A PROPER RECOMMENDATION AS TO THE MERIT OF ANY PARTICULAR SECURITY FOR INCLUSION IN YOUR PORTFOLIO. This REPORT is solely for informative purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security. It is not intended as being a complete description of the company, industry, securities or developments referred to in the material. Any forecasts contained in this report were independently prepared unless otherwise stated, and HAVE NOT BEEN endorsed by the Management of the company which is the subject of this report. Additional information is available upon request. THIS REPORT IS COPYRIGHT. YOU MAY NOT REDISTRIBUTE THIS REPORT WITHOUT OUR PERMISSION. Please give proper credit, including citing Fundamental Research Corp and/or the analyst, when quoting information from this report. The information contained in this report is intended to be viewed only in jurisdictions where it may be legally viewed and is not intended for use by any person or entity in any jurisdiction where such use would be contrary to local regulations or which would require any registration requirement within such jurisdiction.